NFL 2026 Week 4 schedule

Week 4 of the 2026 season with real current market spreads, totals and line movement. Nothing on this page is a prediction for a game that has already been played, and no final score is shown for a game that has not.

Thursday

CLE +2.75 (2 books)
Total 39.5
PIT win prob 57.4%
DivisionalPIT short weekCLE short week
Signals

Line movement: opened +2.75, now +2.75; total opened 39.5, now 39.5 across 86 real snapshots.

Rest: PIT 4 days (short week), CLE 4 days (short week).

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Pittsburgh Steelers: 1.562%
  • Cleveland Browns: 1.158%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Cleveland Browns SOS · Pittsburgh Steelers SOS

Sunday early

WAS -1.5 (3 books)
Total 50.5
WAS win prob 50.8%
Signals

Line movement: opened -1.5, now -1.5; total opened 49.5, now 50.5 across 86 real snapshots.

Rest: IND 7 days, WAS 7 days.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Indianapolis Colts: 1.304%
  • Washington Commanders: 1.381%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Washington Commanders SOS · Indianapolis Colts SOS

NYG -7 (3 books)
Total 45.5
NYG win prob 72.3%
Signals

Line movement: opened -7, now -7; total opened 45.5, now 45.5 across 86 real snapshots.

Rest: ARI 7 days, NYG 7 days.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Arizona Cardinals: 0.755%
  • New York Giants: 1.965%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: New York Giants SOS · Arizona Cardinals SOS

HOU -2.5 (3 books)
Total 47.5
HOU win prob 57.1%
Signals

Line movement: opened -2.5, now -2.5; total opened 47.5, now 47.5 across 86 real snapshots.

Rest: DAL 7 days, HOU 7 days.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Dallas Cowboys: 1.007%
  • Houston Texans: 1.354%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Houston Texans SOS · Dallas Cowboys SOS

TB +1.5 (3 books)
Total 47.5
GB win prob 52.2%
GB off a bye
Signals

Line movement: opened +1.5, now +1.5; total opened 47.5, now 47.5 across 86 real snapshots.

Rest: GB 10 days (off a bye), TB 7 days.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Green Bay Packers: 1.101%
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1.301%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Tampa Bay Buccaneers SOS · Green Bay Packers SOS

CIN -2.5 (3 books)
Total 51.5
CIN win prob 57.1%
Signals

Line movement: opened -2.5, now -2.5; total opened 51.5, now 51.5 across 86 real snapshots.

Rest: JAX 7 days, CIN 7 days.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Jacksonville Jaguars: 1.166%
  • Cincinnati Bengals: 1.480%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Cincinnati Bengals SOS · Jacksonville Jaguars SOS

PHI +2.25 (2 books)
Total 47
LA win prob 56.0%
PHI short week
Signals

Line movement: opened +2.25, now +2.25; total opened 47, now 47 across 86 real snapshots.

Rest: LA 7 days, PHI 6 days (short week).

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Los Angeles Rams: 1.170%
  • Philadelphia Eagles: 1.092%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Philadelphia Eagles SOS · Los Angeles Rams SOS

BUF -3.5 (2 books)
Total 50
BUF win prob 61.4%
Divisional
Signals

Line movement: opened -3.5, now -3.5; total opened 50, now 50 across 63 real snapshots.

Rest: NE 7 days, BUF 7 days.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • New England Patriots: 0.958%
  • Buffalo Bills: 1.449%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Buffalo Bills SOS · New England Patriots SOS

CHI -8.75 (2 books)
Total 45
CHI win prob 77.1%
CHI short week
Signals

Line movement: opened -8.75, now -8.75; total opened 45, now 45 across 86 real snapshots.

Rest: NYJ 7 days, CHI 6 days (short week).

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • New York Jets: 0.623%
  • Chicago Bears: 2.097%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Chicago Bears SOS · New York Jets SOS

BAL -8.5 (3 books)
Total 47.5
BAL win prob 77.1%
Signals

Line movement: opened -8.5, now -8.5; total opened 47.5, now 47.5 across 86 real snapshots.

Rest: TEN 7 days, BAL 7 days.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Tennessee Titans: 0.622%
  • Baltimore Ravens: 1.990%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Baltimore Ravens SOS · Tennessee Titans SOS

Sunday late

MIN -7.5 (3 books)
Total 43.5
MIN win prob 75.8%
Signals

Line movement: opened -7.5, now -7.5; total opened 43.5, now 43.5 across 86 real snapshots.

Rest: MIA 7 days, MIN 7 days.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Miami Dolphins: 0.658%
  • Minnesota Vikings: 2.062%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Minnesota Vikings SOS · Miami Dolphins SOS

SF -2.5 (3 books)
Total 46.5
SF win prob 57.3%
Signals

Line movement: opened -2.5, now -2.5; total opened 46.5, now 46.5 across 86 real snapshots.

Rest: DEN 7 days, SF 7 days.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Denver Broncos: 0.996%
  • San Francisco 49ers: 1.501%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: San Francisco 49ers SOS · Denver Broncos SOS

LV +5.5 (2 books)
Total 43
KC win prob 68.1%
Divisional
Signals

Line movement: opened +5.5, now +5.5; total opened 43.5, now 43 across 86 real snapshots.

Rest: KC 7 days, LV 7 days.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Kansas City Chiefs: 1.784%
  • Las Vegas Raiders: 0.868%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Las Vegas Raiders SOS · Kansas City Chiefs SOS

SEA -3 (2 books)
Total 45.5
SEA win prob 60.6%
Signals

Line movement: opened -3, now -3; total opened 45.5, now 45.5 across 63 real snapshots.

Rest: LAC 7 days, SEA 7 days.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Los Angeles Chargers: 1.072%
  • Seattle Seahawks: 1.509%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Seattle Seahawks SOS · Los Angeles Chargers SOS

Sunday night

CAR +3 (2 books)
Total 47
DET win prob 59.9%
Signals

Line movement: opened +3, now +3; total opened 47, now 47 across 86 real snapshots.

Rest: DET 7 days, CAR 7 days.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Detroit Lions: 1.493%
  • Carolina Panthers: 1.089%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Carolina Panthers SOS · Detroit Lions SOS

Monday

NO -2.5 (3 books)
Total 45.5
NO win prob 55.1%
DivisionalATL off a bye
Signals

Line movement: opened -2.5, now -2.5; total opened 45.5, now 45.5 across 86 real snapshots.

Rest: ATL 11 days (off a bye), NO 8 days.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Atlanta Falcons: 1.220%
  • New Orleans Saints: 1.500%

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: New Orleans Saints SOS · Atlanta Falcons SOS

Path survival is a 10,000-trial Monte Carlo run on de-vigged odds_api_live prices, seeded at 20260101 with no teams used, matching the state the Path Survival Alert tracks. No prior same-state snapshot exists for this week, so levels are shown without a drift figure.

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