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Every team, player and price we track

One entry point into the real data behind the picks: power ratings, advanced player metrics, live market lines and the full research record.

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Games

Every real game since 2006 with its market price, conditions, crew and box score.

Teams

ELO trajectory, defense-vs-position, positional schedule strength, roster and injuries.

Players

Search every player: Next Gen Stats, PFR advanced metrics, season production and play drill-down.

Compare

Any two teams side by side: weekly survivor verdict, market lines, ELO, defense-vs-position, injuries and scheme.

Board

Live de-vigged win probabilities, consensus spreads and totals with real book counts.

Upsets

Every game a heavy favourite lost outright, ranked by real de-vigged pre-game price.

Record Book

Computed extremes: most broken tackles, most separation, biggest play, biggest upset.

Head to Head

All-time series record between any two teams, with streaks and the recent meetings.

Draft Classes

Each draft year in round and pick order, with the career production that followed.

Leaderboards

Season leaders in broken tackles, separation, pressures and EPA — plus team scheme ranks.

Injuries

Every team's current Out, Doubtful and Questionable designations, with both sources compared.

Weather

Real wind, cold and dome splits across 5,431 games — plus this week's forecast conditions.

Stadiums

Every venue's real roof, surface, scoring trend and home record against the league baseline.

Primetime

Every team's real record in standalone primetime windows, tested against what the market expected.

Officials

Every head referee since 2015: games worked, penalty rates by season, and games called.

Research

Every factor tested against real seasons — including the ones that came back flat.

Methodology

How each number is computed, which table it comes from, and what it cannot tell you.

Play

This week's teams

top elo ratings · 2025 season

Trivia, computed today

answers re-queried from ingested data

Receiving

Which receiver has averaged the most yards of separation in a tracked season (minimum 80 targets)?

Khalil Shakir, BUF 2024

nflverse_ngs_weekly · 2016–2025

Rushing

Which running back has beaten his expected rushing yards by the widest per-carry margin in a tracked season (minimum 150 carries)?

Derrick Henry, BAL 2024

nflverse_ngs_weekly · 2016–2025

Passing

Which quarterback has held the ball longest before throwing, on average, in a tracked season (minimum 250 attempts)?

Brock Purdy, SF 2025

nflverse_ngs_weekly · 2016–2025

All trivia →

From the Edge Lab

11 factors tested

Late-week information timing

validated

Validated on the elimination arm: closing lines were significantly more accurate than midweek lines against a week 5/10 control. Waiting for late-week news is a real edge in those spots.

183 games (144 elimination-proxy, 39 clinch-proxy) · 2021-2025, weeks 15-18

Referee crew effect

significant · not exploitable

Mixed. Every market-facing angle came back flat - favourite win rate, home win rate, totals and over rate all failed correction for multiple comparisons. But penalty-rate heterogeneity across crews is genuinely real and significant. Real effect, not exploitable.

3,024 games, 27 head referees · 2006-2025

Rest differential

flat

No detectable edge. Rest is already in the price.

5,295 games · 2006-2025

Divisional games

flat

Flat. Divisional favourites win at their implied rate.

5,295 games · 2006-2025

See all 11 findings →
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