Which receiver has averaged the most yards of separation in a tracked season (minimum 80 targets)?
Khalil Shakir, BUF 2024
nflverse_ngs_weekly · 2016–2025
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One entry point into the real data behind the picks: power ratings, advanced player metrics, live market lines and the full research record.
Most open receiver in a game: Freddie Swain, 8.69 yd.
Trivia · RushingWhich running back has beaten his expected rushing yards by the widest per-carry margin in a tracked season (minimum 150 carries)? Derrick Henry, BAL 2024.
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Strategy PersonasEight fixed survivor rules replayed across five real seasons. Which rule survives longest?
top elo ratings · 2025 season
answers re-queried from ingested data
Khalil Shakir, BUF 2024
nflverse_ngs_weekly · 2016–2025
Derrick Henry, BAL 2024
nflverse_ngs_weekly · 2016–2025
Brock Purdy, SF 2025
nflverse_ngs_weekly · 2016–2025
11 factors tested
Validated on the elimination arm: closing lines were significantly more accurate than midweek lines against a week 5/10 control. Waiting for late-week news is a real edge in those spots.
183 games (144 elimination-proxy, 39 clinch-proxy) · 2021-2025, weeks 15-18
Mixed. Every market-facing angle came back flat - favourite win rate, home win rate, totals and over rate all failed correction for multiple comparisons. But penalty-rate heterogeneity across crews is genuinely real and significant. Real effect, not exploitable.
3,024 games, 27 head referees · 2006-2025
No detectable edge. Rest is already in the price.
5,295 games · 2006-2025
Flat. Divisional favourites win at their implied rate.
5,295 games · 2006-2025