Most survivor tools pick this week. This one simulates the whole season.

the honest part

We tested 13 ways to beat a survivor pool market. Most of them didn't work.

Rest differential, divisional games, home underdogs, coaching head-to-head, surface and altitude, trap-game timing, referee crews, bookmaker-dispersion confidence scoring. Each one was run against real historical seasons and real closing lines. Most came back flat. One confidence model failed calibration outright and was scrapped. A few survived — and those are the only ones the product uses.

All 13 results are published with sample sizes, effect sizes and verdicts, failures included, because a list of only the winners isn't evidence.