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Primetime performance
Every team's real record in standalone primetime windows, 2006–2025, next to their overall record over the same games — and, more usefully, next to what the pre-game market already expected them to win.
What counts as primetime here
Primetime is a real standalone window, classified from the real kickoff weekday and local kickoff time on every game: Thursday, Monday, Saturday, the handful of Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday games — and Sunday Night Football, defined as any Sunday game kicking off at 18:15 local or later. Sunday afternoon games are excluded.
- SNF · 398
- Mon · 365
- Thu · 303
- Sat · 180
- Fri · 7
- Tue · 5
- Wed · 4
1262 primetime games out of 5431 real games on record · minimum 20 games to be ranked
Is there actually a primetime effect?
No. Measured against the pre-game market price of each real game — which already knows how good each team is — the league-wide primetime residual is -0.0 wins (-0.00σ), and the spread of the 32 per-team z-scores is 1.06 against the 1.00 you would get from pure chance. Chi-square is 34.9 on 32 degrees of freedom — right where noise puts it. The most extreme team, SEA at 1.94σ, is exactly the kind of tail you expect when you run 32 comparisons at once.
Raw primetime win rates below are still real, and a good team wins more primetime games — but that is the team being good, not the lights. Treat the “vs market” column as the only column that tries to separate the two.
| # | Team | Primetime | Win % | Overall % | Δ pts | Expected W | vs market (σ) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 56–34–1 | 62.1% | 58.1% | +4.0 | 47.5 | +1.94 | |
| 2 | CHI | 43–50 | 46.2% | 46.7% | -0.5 | 34.6 | +1.25 | |
| 3 | IND | 45–41 | 52.3% | 56.1% | -3.8 | 38.8 | +1.22 | |
| 4 | NE | 72–39 | 64.9% | 67.9% | -3.0 | 65.9 | +1.10 | |
| 5 | BAL | 58–42 | 58.0% | 60.2% | -2.2 | 53.1 | +1.07 | |
| 6 | SF | 55–39 | 58.5% | 52.0% | +6.5 | 50.6 | +0.97 | |
| 7 | TEN | 25–26 | 49.0% | 45.6% | +3.4 | 21.8 | +0.97 | |
| 8 | KC | 64–38 | 62.7% | 58.1% | +4.7 | 59.6 | +0.96 | |
| 9 | ATL | 29–30 | 49.2% | 49.3% | -0.1 | 26.2 | +0.80 | |
| 10 | NO | 50–34 | 59.5% | 57.2% | +2.3 | 45.7 | +0.77 | |
| 11 | CLE | 19–24 | 44.2% | 34.0% | +10.2 | 17.0 | +0.68 | |
| 12 | PHI | 65–49 | 57.0% | 58.0% | -1.0 | 61.2 | +0.58 | |
| 13 | LV | 23–36 | 39.0% | 36.0% | +3.0 | 21.2 | +0.53 | |
| 14 | PIT | 68–49 | 58.1% | 60.7% | -2.6 | 63.0 | +0.40 | |
| 15 | GB | 66–49–1 | 57.3% | 61.8% | -4.5 | 60.7 | +0.28 | |
| 16 | HOU | 32–35 | 47.8% | 48.1% | -0.3 | 30.9 | +0.28 | |
| 17 | DAL | 77–58–1 | 57.0% | 55.6% | +1.4 | 73.8 | +0.04 | |
| 18 | JAX | 15–20 | 42.9% | 37.7% | +5.2 | 14.0 | -0.01 | |
| 19 | BUF | 34–31 | 52.3% | 52.6% | -0.3 | 35.5 | -0.42 | |
| 20 | LAC | 44–42 | 51.2% | 53.5% | -2.4 | 41.9 | -0.45 | |
| 21 | ARI | 22–31–1 | 41.7% | 45.1% | -3.4 | 23.5 | -0.75 | |
| 22 | WAS | 26–51 | 33.8% | 40.5% | -6.8 | 29.1 | -0.79 | |
| 23 | LA | 31–36 | 46.3% | 46.0% | +0.2 | 34.8 | -0.99 | |
| 24 | DEN | 43–46 | 48.3% | 52.2% | -3.9 | 45.3 | -1.00 | |
| 25 | DET | 28–40 | 41.2% | 42.3% | -1.1 | 31.8 | -1.01 | |
| 26 | NYG | 35–62 | 36.1% | 44.1% | -8.0 | 37.5 | -1.01 | |
| 27 | MIA | 18–36 | 33.3% | 45.1% | -11.8 | 22.3 | -1.28 | |
| 28 | TB | 21–32 | 39.6% | 44.5% | -4.9 | 25.4 | -1.33 | |
| 29 | CIN | 26–39 | 40.0% | 48.5% | -8.5 | 31.3 | -1.43 | |
| 30 | NYJ | 20–42 | 32.3% | 39.4% | -7.1 | 25.4 | -1.50 | |
| 31 | MIN | 32–49 | 39.5% | 53.1% | -13.6 | 38.5 | -1.81 | |
| 32 | CAR | 18–30 | 37.5% | 44.5% | -7.0 | 23.0 | -1.92 |
Source: real completed games, 2006–2025, with de-vigged pre-game moneyline prices where a real price exists. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities; the σ column is the Poisson-binomial z-score of actual minus expected. Nothing here is betting advice. See how every factor is tested →