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Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Eagles is the better survivor pick this week

Eagles score 0.453 equity (67.8% win probability) against Chiefs at 0.414 — a real gap of 0.040.

KC team page →PHI team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DENOpponentvs WAS

56.9%Win prob67.8%

0.414Equity score0.453

−2.5Spread11/11 books−5.5

43.5Game total44.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 10 meetings · KC 4 — PHI 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1519.9ELO rating1589.5

#16ELO rank#3

6-11Record11-6

AFC WestDivisionNFC East

#3Division rank#1

L 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10Last 5newest firstL 4 · L 7 · W +1 · W +11 · W +31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.1 · #13vs QB14.5 · #10

19.4 · #6vs RB22.9 · #20

27.3 · #10vs WR26.5 · #6

11.0 · #7vs TE8.3 · #1

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.39 (2025)

7.88Pressures / game8.17

35-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows19-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion36.4% · #28

8.1% · #32Play action10.1% · #23

11.5% · #1RPO5.4% · #14

4.7% · #7Screen pass2.1% · #32

2.4% · #32No huddle15.9% · #4

67.6% · #2Shotgun62.9% · #7

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage43.5% · #3

33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)19.7% · #31

33.6% · #6Pressure32.8% · #8

KC scheme profile →PHI scheme profile →

Injury report

2025 week 18 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDTFull Participation in Practice
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDEQuestionable
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
Hunter NourzadCenterOut
Isiah PachecoRBQuestionable

Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
A.J. WoodsCornerbackQuestionable
Adoree' JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
AJ DillonRunning BackOut
Azeez OjulariLinebackerOut
Brandon JohnsonCornerbackQuestionable
Brett TothCenterOut
Byron YoungDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JurgensCenterOut
Cameron LatuTight EndOut
Dallas GoedertTight EndQuestionable
Darius CooperWide ReceiverQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)