path survival · 2 min read
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations
Same-state Monte Carlo snapshots for 2026 Week 9: which top survivor options moved in the simulated season paths as the market shifted.
Today’s Path Survival Alert shows which team gained ground in the full-season survivor simulation. Because both runs used the same starting state and random seed, the change reflects movement in the betting market rather than the calendar, a new opponent, or ordinary simulation noise.
- Top-10 equity teams checked
- 10
- Teams past the threshold
- 1
- Biggest move
- Jacksonville Jaguars 2.44pp
- Hours between snapshots
- 24
Jacksonville Jaguars — +2.44pp
Jacksonville Jaguars (equity rank 4, current de-vigged win probability 77.9%) faces Baltimore Ravens in Week 9: its share of winning simulated seasons moved up from 2.87% to 5.31% (2.44 percentage points) between two simulations run from an identical starting state.
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ share of winning simulated seasons rose from 2.87% to 5.31%, an increase of 2.44 percentage points. They are fourth in equity and have a current de-vigged win probability of 77.9% against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9.
How to use it
Survivor players should read simulation drift as a sign that the market has changed how a team fits into full-season paths. It is context for evaluating the pool, not a prediction or a recommendation.
How this was built
Every day we re-run the same 10,000-trial full-season survivor simulation from an identical starting state: 2026 Week 9, no teams used, the same random seed and the same trial count. Only the live de-vigged betting odds change between runs, so a change in a team's share of winning simulated seasons is market drift and nothing else. A team appears here when it sits inside the week's top ten by equity score and its share moved at least 1 percentage point against the previous same-state run. Repeating the identical state with different seeds moves shares about 0.2 percentage points, which is why the bar sits well above that.
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