Weather Impact
What the weather actually did to 5,431 real games
Every number below is computed from recorded kickoff conditions — 3,752 of 5,431 games from 2006–2025 carry a real temperature and wind reading (indoor venues are logged without one). Passing splits use team box scores from 2021–2025. Results are reported as they came out, including the flat ones.
Wind effect on scoring
-4.5 pts
Heavy wind vs calm, outdoor games only.
Dome vs outdoors
+3.5 pts
Domes score more, consistently.
Cold effect on scoring
0.6 pts
Total spread across every temperature band — effectively flat.
Finding 1
Wind suppresses scoring; cold barely does
Outdoor games only, so the wind bands are not contaminated by indoor venues.
| Wind at kickoff | Games | Avg total points | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calm · 0–7 mph | 1,822 | 45.40 | 13.99 |
| Breezy · 8–12 mph | 1,227 | 43.82 | 13.44 |
| Windy · 13–17 mph | 508 | 42.02 | 14.28 |
| Heavy wind · 18+ mph | 194 | 40.88 | 14.28 |
| Temperature at kickoff | Games | Avg total points | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freezing · below 32°F | 247 | 44.17 | 14.30 |
| Cold · 32–49°F | 947 | 43.78 | 14.44 |
| Mild · 50–69°F | 1,534 | 44.33 | 13.90 |
| Warm · 70°F and up | 1,024 | 44.38 | 13.41 |
Temperature is the surprise: freezing games score within roughly half a point of warm ones, and the band-to-band spread is smaller than a single point on a ~14-point standard deviation. The popular “cold kills offence” claim does not survive the real sample.
Finding 2
Roof is a bigger lever than temperature
| Roof | Games | Avg total points | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| outdoors | 3,877 | 44.14 | 13.90 |
| dome | 838 | 47.69 | 14.18 |
| closed | 606 | 46.93 | 13.69 |
| open | 110 | 47.47 | 13.41 |
Finding 3
Wind hurts passing efficiency, not passing volume
Per team-game, 2021–2025. Teams do not meaningfully abandon the pass in wind — attempts barely move — but the passes they throw are worse.
| Conditions | Team games | Pass att | Carries | Y/A | EPA/att | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm · 0–7 mph | 788 | 33.2 | 26.6 | 6.74 | 0.043 | 1.83 |
| Breezy · 8–12 mph | 554 | 32.9 | 27.1 | 6.58 | 0.040 | 1.27 |
| Windy · 13–17 mph | 238 | 32.4 | 27.4 | 6.26 | -0.030 | -0.10 |
| Heavy wind · 18+ mph | 74 | 31.4 | 27.9 | 6.07 | -0.048 | -1.69 |
| Indoors (dome / closed roof) | 890 | 33.9 | 26.8 | 6.84 | 0.028 | -0.76 |
| Wind not recorded | 304 | 33.7 | 27.0 | 6.61 | 0.020 | 0.16 |
Finding 4
The market already knows about the wind
The only test that matters for a bettor: actual total points minus the closing total line. If wind were mispriced, windy games would land systematically under. They do drift under, but the effect is small and the calm bucket drifts over by a similar amount — a pattern consistent with a general market-wide bias rather than a wind edge.
| Wind at kickoff | Games | Points vs closing total | z |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calm · 0–7 mph | 1,822 | +1.31 | 4.14 |
| Breezy · 8–12 mph | 1,227 | +0.12 | 0.32 |
| Windy · 13–17 mph | 508 | -1.38 | -2.25 |
| Heavy wind · 18+ mph | 194 | -1.37 | -1.45 |
Verdict, in Edge Lab terms: real but priced. Wind genuinely changes football, and the closing total already reflects it. That is a descriptive finding, not a betting edge, and it is not used in any pick recommendation.
Live
This week's forecast conditions
Real OpenWeather snapshot taken Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:02 GMT, for outdoor games only — domes and closed roofs are never forecast. Sorted by wind, because that is the variable the data above says matters.
Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:15:00 GMT · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Temp
91°F
Wind
14.1 mph · g27
Precip
0%
Clear · in the wind band where passing efficiency drops
Sun, 13 Sep 2026 17:00:00 GMT · Acrisure Stadium
Temp
82°F
Wind
7.5 mph · g9
Precip
0%
Clouds
Sun, 13 Sep 2026 20:25:00 GMT · Lincoln Financial Field
Temp
85°F
Wind
6.1 mph · g8
Precip
0%
Clouds
Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:35:00 GMT · Melbourne Cricket Ground
Temp
59°F
Wind
5.4 mph · g4
Precip
0%
Clear
Sun, 13 Sep 2026 17:00:00 GMT · Paycor Stadium
Temp
89°F
Wind
4.9 mph · g7
Precip
0%
Clouds
Sun, 13 Sep 2026 17:00:00 GMT · Bank of America Stadium
Temp
95°F
Wind
4.1 mph · g5
Precip
0%
Clouds
Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:20:00 GMT · MetLife Stadium
Temp
81°F
Wind
3.4 mph · g8
Precip
0%
Clouds
Sun, 13 Sep 2026 17:00:00 GMT · Nissan Stadium
Temp
94°F
Wind
2.2 mph · g5
Precip
0%
Clouds
Sources: recorded kickoff conditions for 2006–2025 completed games; team box scores 2021–2025; OpenWeather forecast snapshots for upcoming outdoor games. Nothing here feeds the pick engine. See the tested factors → How these numbers are built →