Weather Impact
What the weather actually did to 5,431 real games
Every number below is computed from recorded kickoff conditions — 3,752 of 5,431 games from 2006–2025 carry a real temperature and wind reading (indoor venues are logged without one). Passing splits use team box scores from 2021–2026. Results are reported as they came out, including the flat ones.
Wind effect on scoring
-4.5 pts
Heavy wind vs calm, outdoor games only.
Dome vs outdoors
+3.5 pts
Domes score more, consistently.
Cold effect on scoring
0.6 pts
Total spread across every temperature band — effectively flat.
Finding 1
Wind suppresses scoring; cold barely does
Outdoor games only, so the wind bands are not contaminated by indoor venues.
| Wind at kickoff | Games | Avg total points | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calm · 0–7 mph | 1,822 | 45.40 | 13.99 |
| Breezy · 8–12 mph | 1,227 | 43.82 | 13.44 |
| Windy · 13–17 mph | 508 | 42.02 | 14.28 |
| Heavy wind · 18+ mph | 194 | 40.88 | 14.28 |
| Temperature at kickoff | Games | Avg total points | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freezing · below 32°F | 247 | 44.17 | 14.30 |
| Cold · 32–49°F | 947 | 43.78 | 14.44 |
| Mild · 50–69°F | 1,534 | 44.33 | 13.90 |
| Warm · 70°F and up | 1,024 | 44.38 | 13.41 |
Temperature is the surprise: freezing games score within roughly half a point of warm ones, and the band-to-band spread is smaller than a single point on a ~14-point standard deviation. The popular “cold kills offence” claim does not survive the real sample.
Finding 2
Roof is a bigger lever than temperature
| Roof | Games | Avg total points | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| outdoors | 3,877 | 44.14 | 13.90 |
| dome | 838 | 47.69 | 14.18 |
| closed | 606 | 46.93 | 13.69 |
| open | 110 | 47.47 | 13.41 |
Finding 3
Wind hurts passing efficiency, not passing volume
Per team-game, 2021–2026. Teams do not meaningfully abandon the pass in wind — attempts barely move — but the passes they throw are worse.
| Conditions | Team games | Pass att | Carries | Y/A | EPA/att | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm · 0–7 mph | 788 | 33.2 | 26.6 | 6.74 | 0.043 | 1.83 |
| Breezy · 8–12 mph | 554 | 32.9 | 27.1 | 6.58 | 0.040 | 1.27 |
| Windy · 13–17 mph | 238 | 32.4 | 27.4 | 6.26 | -0.030 | -0.10 |
| Heavy wind · 18+ mph | 74 | 31.4 | 27.9 | 6.07 | -0.048 | -1.69 |
| Indoors (dome / closed roof) | 890 | 33.9 | 26.8 | 6.84 | 0.028 | -0.76 |
| Wind not recorded | 304 | 33.7 | 27.0 | 6.61 | 0.020 | 0.16 |
Finding 4
The market already knows about the wind
The only test that matters for a bettor: actual total points minus the closing total line. If wind were mispriced, windy games would land systematically under. They do drift under, but the effect is small and the calm bucket drifts over by a similar amount — a pattern consistent with a general market-wide bias rather than a wind edge.
| Wind at kickoff | Games | Points vs closing total | z |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calm · 0–7 mph | 1,822 | +1.31 | 4.14 |
| Breezy · 8–12 mph | 1,227 | +0.12 | 0.32 |
| Windy · 13–17 mph | 508 | -1.38 | -2.25 |
| Heavy wind · 18+ mph | 194 | -1.37 | -1.45 |
Verdict, in Edge Lab terms: real but priced. Wind genuinely changes football, and the closing total already reflects it. That is a descriptive finding, not a betting edge, and it is not used in any pick recommendation.
Live
This week's forecast conditions
Real OpenWeather snapshot taken Thu, 05 Nov 2026 12:00:09 GMT, for outdoor games only — domes and closed roofs are never forecast. Sorted by wind, because that is the variable the data above says matters.
Sun, 08 Nov 2026 21:25:00 GMT · Lumen Field
Temp
54°F
Wind
13.2 mph · g26
Precip
45%
Rain · in the wind band where passing efficiency drops
Sun, 08 Nov 2026 21:25:00 GMT · Gillette Stadium
Temp
54°F
Wind
10.4 mph · g21
Precip
0%
Clear
Sun, 08 Nov 2026 18:00:00 GMT · Lincoln Financial Field
Temp
59°F
Wind
9.9 mph · g23
Precip
0%
Clear
Sun, 08 Nov 2026 18:00:00 GMT · Northwest Stadium
Temp
59°F
Wind
9.5 mph · g23
Precip
0%
Clear
Fri, 06 Nov 2026 01:15:00 GMT · M&T Bank Stadium
Temp
67°F
Wind
6.0 mph · g11
Precip
0%
Clouds
Mon, 09 Nov 2026 01:20:00 GMT · Soldier Field
Temp
52°F
Wind
5.5 mph · g11
Precip
0%
Clear
Sun, 08 Nov 2026 18:00:00 GMT · Bank of America Stadium
Temp
64°F
Wind
4.5 mph · g13
Precip
0%
Clear
Sun, 08 Nov 2026 21:05:00 GMT · Levi's Stadium
Temp
70°F
Wind
4.2 mph · g14
Precip
0%
Clouds
Sun, 08 Nov 2026 18:00:00 GMT · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Temp
60°F
Wind
4.0 mph · g12
Precip
0%
Clear
Sources: recorded kickoff conditions for 2006–2025 completed games; team box scores 2021–2026; OpenWeather forecast snapshots for upcoming outdoor games. Nothing here feeds the pick engine. See the tested factors → How these numbers are built →