Upset Finder

When the market was most wrong

691 real games where a favourite priced at 65.0% or better lost outright, out of 5,416 graded games carrying a real closing moneyline (1,836 favourite losses at any price). Win probabilities are de-vigged from real closing prices — no model, no estimate.

691 games match

Game	Result	Fav win prob	Score	Margin
2020 · W15	LAlost toNYJ	90.9%	23–20	+3	detail →
2009 · W13	PITlost toLV	90.1%	27–24	+3	detail →
2018 · W3	MINlost toBUF	89.3%	27–6	+21	detail →
2009 · W6	PHIlost toLV	89.1%	13–9	+4	detail →
2019 · W17	NElost toMIA	89.0%	27–24	+3	detail →
2021 · W9	BUFlost toJAX	88.9%	9–6	+3	detail →
2010 · W16	PHIlost toMIN	88.7%	24–14	+10	detail →
2006 · W17	DALlost toDET	88.7%	39–31	+8	detail →
2011 · W8	NOlost toLA	87.9%	31–21	+10	detail →
2020 · W15	PITlost toCIN	87.6%	27–17	+10	detail →
2006 · W9	CHIlost toMIA	87.3%	31–13	+18	detail →
2021 · W18	INDlost toJAX	87.2%	26–11	+15	detail →
2025 · W9	GBlost toCAR	87.2%	16–13	+3	detail →
2006 · W11	PHIlost toTEN	87.2%	31–13	+18	detail →
2017 · W6	ATLlost toMIA	86.8%	20–17	+3	detail →
2023 · W14	MIAlost toTEN	86.8%	28–27	+1	detail →
2009 · W16	NOlost toTB	86.8%	20–17	+3	detail →
2007 · W4	LAClost toKC	86.7%	30–16	+14	detail →
2018 · W15	LAlost toPHI	86.0%	30–23	+7	detail →
2009 · W15	DENlost toLV	85.6%	20–19	+1	detail →
2009 · W11	PITlost toKC	85.4%	27–24	+3	detail →
2011 · W10	PHIlost toARI	85.4%	21–17	+4	detail →
2017 · W6	DENlost toNYG	85.4%	23–10	+13	detail →
2018 · W13	GBlost toARI	85.1%	20–17	+3	detail →
2012 · W10	SFlost toLA	84.8%	24–24	+0	detail →
2023 · W17	PHIlost toARI	84.7%	35–31	+4	detail →
2012 · W2	NElost toARI	84.6%	20–18	+2	detail →
2006 · W6	WASlost toTEN	84.6%	25–22	+3	detail →
2022 · W7	TBlost toCAR	84.5%	21–3	+18	detail →
2010 · W13	LAClost toLV	84.4%	28–13	+15	detail →
2026 · W6	LAlost toARI	84.0%	18–16	+2	detail →
2019 · W10	NOlost toATL	83.9%	26–9	+17	detail →
2021 · W16	LAClost toHOU	83.9%	41–29	+12	detail →
2021 · W15	ARIlost toDET	83.7%	30–12	+18	detail →
2010 · W7	NOlost toCLE	83.7%	30–17	+13	detail →
2015 · W10	GBlost toDET	83.5%	18–16	+2	detail →
2011 · W15	GBlost toKC	83.3%	19–14	+5	detail →
2015 · W16	SEAlost toLA	83.2%	23–17	+6	detail →
2023 · W3	DALlost toARI	83.2%	28–16	+12	detail →
2007 · W19	INDlost toLAC	83.0%	28–24	+4	detail →
2008 · W17	TBlost toLV	82.9%	31–24	+7	detail →
2024 · W12	WASlost toDAL	82.7%	34–26	+8	detail →
2015 · W16	PITlost toBAL	82.6%	20–17	+3	detail →
2006 · W17	DENlost toSF	82.4%	26–23	+3	detail →
2007 · W12	ARIlost toSF	82.4%	37–31	+6	detail →
2023 · W16	KClost toLV	82.2%	20–14	+6	detail →
2006 · W15	SEAlost toSF	82.2%	24–14	+10	detail →
2010 · W10	NYGlost toDAL	82.1%	33–20	+13	detail →
2014 · W9	SFlost toLA	82.1%	13–10	+3	detail →
2006 · W10	NElost toNYJ	82.1%	17–14	+3	detail →
2007 · W10	NOlost toLA	82.1%	37–29	+8	detail →
2006 · W10	JAXlost toHOU	82.1%	13–10	+3	detail →
2009 · W14	PITlost toCLE	82.1%	13–6	+7	detail →
2011 · W7	BALlost toJAX	82.0%	12–7	+5	detail →
2013 · W10	TENlost toJAX	81.9%	29–27	+2	detail →
2025 · W13	LAlost toCAR	81.7%	31–28	+3	detail →
2007 · W15	DALlost toPHI	81.7%	10–6	+4	detail →
2008 · W6	WASlost toLA	81.6%	19–17	+2	detail →
2011 · W9	NElost toNYG	81.6%	24–20	+4	detail →
2013 · W3	SFlost toIND	81.6%	27–7	+20	detail →
2007 · W21	NElost toNYG	81.5%	17–14	+3	detail →
2011 · W4	PHIlost toSF	81.3%	24–23	+1	detail →
2010 · W18	NOlost toSEA	81.3%	41–36	+5	detail →
2021 · W15	TBlost toNO	81.3%	9–0	+9	detail →
2025 · W9	DETlost toMIN	81.2%	27–24	+3	detail →
2023 · W13	JAXlost toCIN	81.2%	34–31	+3	detail →
2020 · W13	SEAlost toNYG	81.1%	17–12	+5	detail →
2021 · W8	CINlost toNYJ	81.0%	34–31	+3	detail →
2017 · W14	NElost toMIA	80.9%	27–20	+7	detail →
2019 · W5	KClost toIND	80.9%	19–13	+6	detail →
2009 · W9	GBlost toTB	80.8%	38–28	+10	detail →
2026 · W5	DALlost toTB	80.8%	24–16	+8	detail →
2022 · W10	PHIlost toWAS	80.8%	32–21	+11	detail →
2013 · W9	GBlost toCHI	80.6%	27–20	+7	detail →
2022 · W9	BUFlost toNYJ	80.6%	20–17	+3	detail →
2006 · W8	PITlost toLV	80.5%	20–13	+7	detail →
2008 · W19	CARlost toARI	80.5%	33–13	+20	detail →
2015 · W10	CINlost toHOU	80.5%	10–6	+4	detail →
2013 · W15	DENlost toLAC	80.5%	27–20	+7	detail →
2013 · W12	HOUlost toJAX	80.5%	13–6	+7	detail →
2013 · W11	HOUlost toLV	80.5%	28–23	+5	detail →
2024 · W20	DETlost toWAS	80.4%	45–31	+14	detail →
2026 · W7	HOUlost toNYG	80.4%	27–21	+6	detail →
2013 · W5	ATLlost toNYJ	80.4%	30–28	+2	detail →
2006 · W15	NOlost toWAS	80.3%	16–10	+6	detail →
2019 · W13	CARlost toWAS	80.3%	29–21	+8	detail →
2019 · W10	INDlost toMIA	80.2%	16–12	+4	detail →
2020 · W5	KClost toLV	80.1%	40–32	+8	detail →
2019 · W4	LAlost toTB	80.0%	55–40	+15	detail →
2019 · W13	PHIlost toMIA	79.9%	37–31	+6	detail →
2011 · W5	NYGlost toSEA	79.9%	36–25	+11	detail →
2018 · W1	NOlost toTB	79.9%	48–40	+8	detail →
2017 · W4	NElost toCAR	79.9%	33–30	+3	detail →
2014 · W6	SEAlost toDAL	79.9%	30–23	+7	detail →
2013 · W16	DETlost toNYG	79.9%	23–20	+3	detail →
2009 · W8	ARIlost toCAR	79.8%	34–21	+13	detail →
2018 · W14	PITlost toLV	79.8%	24–21	+3	detail →
2009 · W5	BALlost toCIN	79.7%	17–14	+3	detail →
2021 · W9	DALlost toDEN	79.7%	30–16	+14	detail →
2021 · W11	TENlost toHOU	79.7%	22–13	+9	detail →
2006 · W16	INDlost toHOU	79.7%	27–24	+3	detail →
2019 · W15	SFlost toATL	79.6%	29–22	+7	detail →
2017 · W1	NElost toKC	79.6%	42–27	+15	detail →
2014 · W19	DENlost toIND	79.5%	24–13	+11	detail →
2009 · W17	DENlost toKC	79.2%	44–24	+20	detail →
2017 · W18	KClost toTEN	79.2%	22–21	+1	detail →
2016 · W17	WASlost toNYG	79.2%	19–10	+9	detail →
2014 · W8	DALlost toWAS	79.2%	20–17	+3	detail →
2023 · W6	SFlost toCLE	79.1%	19–17	+2	detail →
2025 · W3	GBlost toCLE	79.1%	13–10	+3	detail →
2013 · W16	SEAlost toARI	79.0%	17–10	+7	detail →
2009 · W6	NYJlost toBUF	79.0%	16–13	+3	detail →
2019 · W19	BALlost toTEN	79.0%	28–12	+16	detail →
2021 · W10	TBlost toWAS	78.9%	29–19	+10	detail →
2015 · W5	KClost toCHI	78.8%	18–17	+1	detail →
2015 · W9	ATLlost toSF	78.8%	17–16	+1	detail →
2015 · W13	NElost toPHI	78.8%	35–28	+7	detail →
2025 · W10	BUFlost toMIA	78.7%	30–13	+17	detail →
2025 · W18	CINlost toCLE	78.7%	20–18	+2	detail →
2026 · W1	LAClost toARI	78.7%	26–14	+12	detail →
2024 · W2	BALlost toLV	78.7%	26–23	+3	detail →
2018 · W3	JAXlost toTEN	78.6%	9–6	+3	detail →
2016 · W4	ARIlost toLA	78.6%	17–13	+4	detail →
2007 · W11	PITlost toNYJ	78.6%	19–16	+3	detail →
2015 · W12	GBlost toCHI	78.5%	17–13	+4	detail →
2015 · W2	NOlost toTB	78.5%	26–19	+7	detail →
2009 · W19	LAClost toNYJ	78.3%	17–14	+3	detail →
2025 · W5	LAlost toSF	78.2%	26–23	+3	detail →
2011 · W19	GBlost toNYG	78.2%	37–20	+17	detail →
2015 · W8	ATLlost toTB	78.1%	23–20	+3	detail →
2014 · W14	NOlost toCAR	78.1%	41–10	+31	detail →
2013 · W6	HOUlost toLA	77.9%	38–13	+25	detail →
2009 · W15	MINlost toCAR	77.8%	26–7	+19	detail →
2009 · W11	CINlost toLV	77.8%	20–17	+3	detail →
2011 · W13	CHIlost toKC	77.7%	10–3	+7	detail →
2012 · W19	DENlost toBAL	77.7%	38–35	+3	detail →
2017 · W11	KClost toNYG	77.7%	12–9	+3	detail →
2017 · W9	SEAlost toWAS	77.7%	17–14	+3	detail →
2006 · W10	ATLlost toCLE	77.7%	17–13	+4	detail →
2026 · W2	TBlost toCLE	77.7%	23–19	+4	detail →
2025 · W5	ARIlost toTEN	77.7%	22–21	+1	detail →
2024 · W4	NYJlost toDEN	77.7%	10–9	+1	detail →
2025 · W16	DETlost toPIT	77.7%	29–24	+5	detail →
2025 · W14	TBlost toNO	77.7%	24–20	+4	detail →
2023 · W12	DETlost toGB	77.7%	29–22	+7	detail →
2011 · W3	PHIlost toNYG	77.7%	29–16	+13	detail →
2008 · W11	PHIlost toCIN	77.6%	13–13	+0	detail →
2012 · W1	NOlost toWAS	77.5%	40–32	+8	detail →
2022 · W5	GBlost toNYG	77.5%	27–22	+5	detail →
2008 · W12	DENlost toLV	77.5%	31–10	+21	detail →
2015 · W17	NElost toMIA	77.3%	20–10	+10	detail →
2016 · W16	SEAlost toARI	77.3%	34–31	+3	detail →
2014 · W11	NOlost toCIN	77.3%	27–10	+17	detail →
2017 · W4	ATLlost toBUF	77.3%	23–17	+6	detail →
2009 · W16	MINlost toCHI	77.3%	36–30	+6	detail →
2016 · W1	ARIlost toNE	77.3%	23–21	+2	detail →
2009 · W16	NYGlost toCAR	77.3%	41–9	+32	detail →
2022 · W7	NElost toCHI	77.3%	33–14	+19	detail →
2021 · W17	INDlost toLV	77.2%	23–20	+3	detail →
2021 · W10	BALlost toMIA	77.2%	22–10	+12	detail →
2019 · W14	HOUlost toDEN	77.2%	38–24	+14	detail →
2024 · W18	GBlost toCHI	77.2%	24–22	+2	detail →
2026 · W3	SEAlost toWAS	77.2%	33–31	+2	detail →
2024 · W17	INDlost toNYG	77.2%	45–33	+12	detail →
2010 · W6	LAClost toLA	77.1%	20–17	+3	detail →
2022 · W6	TBlost toPIT	77.1%	20–18	+2	detail →
2017 · W17	SEAlost toARI	77.0%	26–24	+2	detail →
2019 · W16	SEAlost toARI	77.0%	27–13	+14	detail →
2012 · W3	NOlost toKC	77.0%	27–24	+3	detail →
2015 · W10	LAlost toCHI	77.0%	37–13	+24	detail →
2017 · W17	BALlost toCIN	76.9%	31–27	+4	detail →
2018 · W14	NElost toMIA	76.7%	34–33	+1	detail →
2010 · W19	NElost toNYJ	76.6%	28–21	+7	detail →
2023 · W11	WASlost toNYG	76.6%	31–19	+12	detail →
2023 · W10	BUFlost toDEN	76.6%	24–22	+2	detail →
2023 · W7	BUFlost toNE	76.6%	29–25	+4	detail →
2025 · W5	BUFlost toNE	76.6%	23–20	+3	detail →
2025 · W6	PHIlost toNYG	76.6%	34–17	+17	detail →
2007 · W15	CINlost toSF	76.6%	20–13	+7	detail →
2006 · W8	PHIlost toJAX	76.6%	13–6	+7	detail →
2014 · W14	SFlost toLV	76.5%	24–13	+11	detail →
2006 · W7	JAXlost toHOU	76.3%	27–7	+20	detail →
2007 · W20	GBlost toNYG	76.3%	23–20	+3	detail →
2007 · W1	JAXlost toTEN	76.3%	13–10	+3	detail →
2011 · W9	PHIlost toCHI	76.2%	30–24	+6	detail →
2018 · W10	PHIlost toDAL	76.2%	27–20	+7	detail →
2014 · W11	DENlost toLA	76.2%	22–7	+15	detail →
2022 · W6	GBlost toNYJ	76.0%	27–10	+17	detail →
2008 · W13	NYJlost toDEN	76.0%	34–17	+17	detail →
2007 · W12	NYGlost toMIN	76.0%	41–17	+24	detail →
2025 · W17	LAlost toATL	76.0%	27–24	+3	detail →
2023 · W3	JAXlost toHOU	76.0%	37–17	+20	detail →
2024 · W18	ATLlost toCAR	76.0%	44–38	+6	detail →
2024 · W8	BALlost toCLE	76.0%	29–24	+5	detail →
2023 · W3	BALlost toIND	76.0%	22–19	+3	detail →
2021 · W10	PITlost toDET	75.9%	16–16	+0	detail →
2017 · W12	KClost toBUF	75.9%	16–10	+6	detail →
2010 · W16	LAClost toCIN	75.9%	34–20	+14	detail →
2012 · W14	PITlost toLAC	75.9%	34–24	+10	detail →
2012 · W16	HOUlost toMIN	75.9%	23–6	+17	detail →
2020 · W5	SFlost toMIA	75.8%	43–17	+26	detail →
2019 · W18	NOlost toMIN	75.7%	26–20	+6	detail →
2024 · W1	CINlost toNE	75.7%	16–10	+6	detail →
2026 · W2	BALlost toNO	75.7%	24–17	+7	detail →
2024 · W12	HOUlost toTEN	75.7%	32–27	+5	detail →
2025 · W13	BALlost toCIN	75.7%	32–14	+18	detail →
2024 · W2	DETlost toTB	75.7%	20–16	+4	detail →
2013 · W16	KClost toIND	75.7%	23–7	+16	detail →
2014 · W4	PITlost toTB	75.7%	27–24	+3	detail →
2012 · W20	NElost toBAL	75.7%	28–13	+15	detail →
2021 · W9	LAlost toTEN	75.5%	28–16	+12	detail →
2016 · W9	GBlost toIND	75.4%	31–26	+5	detail →
2018 · W1	DETlost toNYJ	75.4%	48–17	+31	detail →
2018 · W15	JAXlost toWAS	75.3%	16–13	+3	detail →
2018 · W17	NYGlost toDAL	75.3%	36–35	+1	detail →
2009 · W7	NYGlost toARI	75.3%	24–17	+7	detail →
2011 · W18	PITlost toDEN	75.2%	29–23	+6	detail →
2013 · W10	INDlost toLA	75.2%	38–8	+30	detail →
2011 · W9	LVlost toDEN	75.2%	38–24	+14	detail →
2007 · W16	GBlost toCHI	75.1%	35–7	+28	detail →
2008 · W6	NYGlost toCLE	75.1%	35–14	+21	detail →
2025 · W17	DETlost toMIN	75.1%	23–10	+13	detail →
2014 · W12	KClost toLV	74.9%	24–20	+4	detail →
2012 · W14	TBlost toPHI	74.9%	23–21	+2	detail →
2011 · W10	LAClost toLV	74.9%	24–17	+7	detail →
2012 · W13	SFlost toLA	74.9%	16–13	+3	detail →
2017 · W5	PITlost toJAX	74.9%	30–9	+21	detail →
2021 · W4	NOlost toNYG	74.9%	27–21	+6	detail →
2018 · W11	LAClost toDEN	74.8%	23–22	+1	detail →
2025 · W8	ATLlost toMIA	74.8%	34–10	+24	detail →
2024 · W3	CINlost toWAS	74.8%	38–33	+5	detail →
2020 · W14	NOlost toPHI	74.7%	24–21	+3	detail →
2013 · W2	PHIlost toLAC	74.6%	33–30	+3	detail →
2009 · W15	NOlost toDAL	74.6%	24–17	+7	detail →
2006 · W13	INDlost toTEN	74.6%	20–17	+3	detail →
2018 · W17	GBlost toDET	74.6%	31–0	+31	detail →
2007 · W9	LAClost toMIN	74.5%	35–17	+18	detail →
2021 · W10	ARIlost toCAR	74.5%	34–10	+24	detail →
2020 · W6	NElost toDEN	74.4%	18–12	+6	detail →
2026 · W4	BUFlost toNE	74.4%	29–26	+3	detail →
2023 · W19	DALlost toGB	74.4%	48–32	+16	detail →
2023 · W16	SFlost toBAL	74.4%	33–19	+14	detail →
2024 · W9	NOlost toCAR	74.4%	23–22	+1	detail →
2025 · W4	GBlost toDAL	74.4%	40–40	+0	detail →
2014 · W17	MIAlost toNYJ	74.4%	37–24	+13	detail →
2014 · W6	CINlost toCAR	74.4%	37–37	+0	detail →
2010 · W14	GBlost toDET	74.4%	7–3	+4	detail →
2019 · W4	BALlost toCLE	74.4%	40–25	+15	detail →
2009 · W7	CARlost toBUF	74.3%	20–9	+11	detail →
2020 · W16	HOUlost toCIN	74.2%	37–31	+6	detail →

Showing the first 250 of 691 — narrow the filters to see the rest.

Where these numbers come from

Pre-game probabilities are the de-vigged two-way closing moneyline for each game, stored alongside the real final score. A game appears here only when both the real price and the real result exist. Team links go to that franchise's page; historic codes (STL, OAK, SD) resolve to their current franchise.