2026 Week 4 Survivor Picks: Baltimore Ravens Lead the Board

The Baltimore Ravens lead Week 4 because they offer the safest single-game outlook, while the Minnesota Vikings are close behind with a slightly better rest-of-season path. Farther down the list, lower popularity creates some separation from the field, but it comes with a meaningful drop in win probability.

Games priced

16

Picks ranked

6

Top win probability

84.4%

Season path survival

2.65%

16 games priced this week · top 6 ranked below.

1. Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens host Tennessee Titans with a 84.4% win probability across 11 books, an equity score of 0.594, and a 2.43% chance of surviving the rest of the season if you use them now.

The Baltimore Ravens rank first because their 84.4% win probability is the best of the group, making them the strongest choice for simply getting through Week 4. They are also the most popular option, so there is little benefit if they win while other entries follow the same path. Their 2.43% path survival is below the 2.65% baseline, but their immediate safety and top 0.594 equity score keep them first.

2. Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings host Miami Dolphins with a 81.9% win probability across 11 books, an equity score of 0.578, and a 2.48% chance of surviving the rest of the season if you use them now.

The Minnesota Vikings are nearly as safe at 81.9% and carry a 0.578 equity score, just behind Baltimore. Their 2.48% path survival is the best among these six choices, giving them the strongest longer-term case, though it remains below the 2.65% baseline. They rank second because their slightly lower popularity does not fully offset the Ravens’ advantage in win probability.

3. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks host Los Angeles Chargers with a 74.6% win probability across 11 books, an equity score of 0.514, and a 2.02% chance of surviving the rest of the season if you use them now.

The Seattle Seahawks form the next tier with a 74.6% win probability and a 0.514 equity score. They are a little less popular than the top two, but not enough to make up for the larger loss in weekly safety. Their 2.02% path survival also trails both leading options.

4. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills host New England Patriots with a 73.5% win probability across 11 books, an equity score of 0.511, and a 1.80% chance of surviving the rest of the season if you use them now.

The Buffalo Bills sit just behind Seattle because the two choices have nearly identical equity scores, but Buffalo’s 73.5% win probability is lower. Their lower popularity offers a modest chance to gain ground on entries using more common picks. However, their 1.80% path survival is the weakest in this ranking, limiting the longer-term benefit.

5. Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts visit Washington Commanders with a 65.9% win probability across 11 books, an equity score of 0.452, and a 1.83% chance of surviving the rest of the season if you use them now.

The Indianapolis Colts offer more pool separation with a 0.83 popularity proxy, but their 65.9% win probability brings substantially more Week 4 risk. Their 1.83% path survival is only slightly better than Buffalo’s and remains well below the 2.65% baseline. That combination leaves them fifth despite the benefit of being less widely used.

6. Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears host New York Jets with a 63.1% win probability across 11 books, an equity score of 0.450, and a 1.91% chance of surviving the rest of the season if you use them now.

The Chicago Bears are the least popular choice listed, which gives them the clearest leverage if the more common picks lose. Their 1.91% path survival is better than the two teams directly above them, but their 63.1% win probability is the lowest in the group. The added weekly risk keeps them sixth even though their 0.450 equity score is close to Indianapolis.

Situational context