NFL 2026 Week 1 schedule

Week 1 of the 2026 season with real current market spreads, totals and line movement. Nothing on this page is a prediction for a game that has already been played, and no final score is shown for a game that has not.

Thursday

LA -3.5 (11 books)
Total 47.5
LA win prob 64.2%
Divisional
Signals

Line movement: opened -3.5, now -3.5; total opened 48.5, now 47.5 across 86 real snapshots.

Forecast (1h to kickoff): 59°F, wind 5 mph, clear sky.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • San Francisco 49ers: 0.311% (-0.12pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Los Angeles Rams: 0.552% (+0.45pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Los Angeles Rams SOS · San Francisco 49ers SOS

Sunday early

PIT -5 (11 books)
Total 41.5
PIT win prob 67.2%
Signals

Line movement: opened -3, now -5; total opened 42.5, now 41.5 across 87 real snapshots.

Forecast (53h to kickoff): 75°F, wind 6 mph, overcast clouds.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Atlanta Falcons: 0.331% (-0.32pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.679% (+0.39pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Pittsburgh Steelers SOS · Atlanta Falcons SOS

IND +3.5 (11 books)
Total 48
BAL win prob 61.4%
Signals

Line movement: opened +3.5, now +3.5; total opened 48.5, now 48 across 87 real snapshots.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Baltimore Ravens: 0.509% (-0.06pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Indianapolis Colts: 0.464% (+0.09pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Indianapolis Colts SOS · Baltimore Ravens SOS

HOU +1.5 (11 books)
Total 45
BUF win prob 52.8%
Signals

Line movement: opened 0, now +1.5; total opened 44.5, now 45 across 87 real snapshots.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Buffalo Bills: 0.581% (+0.15pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Houston Texans: 0.462% (-0.14pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Houston Texans SOS · Buffalo Bills SOS

CAR +3 (11 books)
Total 47
CHI win prob 60.3%
Signals

Line movement: opened +2.5, now +3; total opened 47.5, now 47 across 87 real snapshots.

Forecast (53h to kickoff): 94°F, wind 4 mph, scattered clouds.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Chicago Bears: 0.760% (+1.27pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Carolina Panthers: 0.401% (-0.09pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Carolina Panthers SOS · Chicago Bears SOS

JAX -8.5 (11 books)
Total 40
JAX win prob 77.7%
Signals

Line movement: opened -7.5, now -8.5; total opened 40.5, now 40 across 87 real snapshots.

Forecast (53h to kickoff): 99°F, wind 3 mph, scattered clouds.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Cleveland Browns: 0.226% (-0.01pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.761% (+0.13pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Jacksonville Jaguars SOS · Cleveland Browns SOS

DET -7 (11 books)
Total 50
DET win prob 73.2%
Signals

Line movement: opened -7, now -7; total opened 49.25, now 50 across 87 real snapshots.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • New Orleans Saints: 0.271% (+0.02pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Detroit Lions: 0.498% (-0.55pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Detroit Lions SOS · New Orleans Saints SOS

TEN -1.5 (11 books)
Total 38.5
TEN win prob 52.6%
Signals

Line movement: opened -2.5, now -1.5; total opened 39.5, now 38.5 across 87 real snapshots.

Forecast (53h to kickoff): 95°F, wind 2 mph, few clouds.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • New York Jets: 0.479% (+0.10pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Tennessee Titans: 0.526% (-0.04pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Tennessee Titans SOS · New York Jets SOS

CIN -3.5 (11 books)
Total 50.5
CIN win prob 64.4%
Signals

Line movement: opened -3.75, now -3.5; total opened 51.5, now 50.5 across 87 real snapshots.

Forecast (53h to kickoff): 87°F, wind 5 mph, broken clouds.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.360% (+0.06pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Cincinnati Bengals: 0.611% (+0.01pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Cincinnati Bengals SOS · Tampa Bay Buccaneers SOS

Sunday late

LAC -9.5 (11 books)
Total 47.5
LAC win prob 80.1%
Signals

Line movement: opened -10.5, now -9.5; total opened 46.5, now 47.5 across 87 real snapshots.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Arizona Cardinals: 0.201% (+0.05pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Los Angeles Chargers: 0.729% (-0.02pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Los Angeles Chargers SOS · Arizona Cardinals SOS

MIN -1.5 (11 books)
Total 46.5
MIN win prob 53.0%
Divisional
Signals

Line movement: opened -1.25, now -1.5; total opened 45, now 46.5 across 87 real snapshots.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Green Bay Packers: 0.428% (-0.15pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Minnesota Vikings: 0.535% (+0.07pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Minnesota Vikings SOS · Green Bay Packers SOS

LV -3 (11 books)
Total 40.5
LV win prob 60.2%
Signals

Line movement: opened -3.5, now -3; total opened 40.5, now 40.5 across 87 real snapshots.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Miami Dolphins: 0.402% (+0.16pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Las Vegas Raiders: 0.608% (-0.09pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Las Vegas Raiders SOS · Miami Dolphins SOS

PHI -5.5 (11 books)
Total 44.5
PHI win prob 68.1%
Divisional
Signals

Line movement: opened -4.5, now -5.5; total opened 46.5, now 44.5 across 87 real snapshots.

Forecast (56h to kickoff): 85°F, wind 7 mph, clear sky.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Washington Commanders: 0.322% (-0.06pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Philadelphia Eagles: 0.599% (+0.04pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Philadelphia Eagles SOS · Washington Commanders SOS

Sunday night

NYG +3 (11 books)
Total 48
DAL win prob 59.3%
Divisional
Signals

Line movement: opened +2.5, now +3; total opened 48.5, now 48 across 87 real snapshots.

Forecast (60h to kickoff): 81°F, wind 8 mph, scattered clouds.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Dallas Cowboys: 0.492% (+0.04pp vs prior snapshot)
  • New York Giants: 0.411% (0.00pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: New York Giants SOS · Dallas Cowboys SOS

Monday

KC -2.5 (11 books)
Total 43.5
KC win prob 56.8%
Divisional
Signals

Line movement: opened -2.5, now -2.5; total opened 42.5, now 43.5 across 87 real snapshots.

Forecast (84h to kickoff): 91°F, wind 16 mph, clear sky.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • Denver Broncos: 0.363% (-0.05pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Kansas City Chiefs: 0.494% (+0.05pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Kansas City Chiefs SOS · Denver Broncos SOS

Unscheduled

SEA 0 (4 books)
Total 29.5
NE win prob 52.6%
Signals

Line movement: opened -3.5, now 0; total opened 44.5, now 29.5 across 66 real snapshots.

Forecast (0h to kickoff): 75°F, wind 4 mph, overcast clouds.

Rest-of-season path survival if picked now

  • New England Patriots: 0.452% (+0.51pp vs prior snapshot)
  • Seattle Seahawks: 0.403% (-1.89pp vs prior snapshot)

Positional strength of schedule is a remaining-schedule metric, not a per-game one: Seattle Seahawks SOS · New England Patriots SOS

Week 1 coverage

Path survival is a 10,000-trial Monte Carlo run on de-vigged odds_api_live prices, seeded at 20260101 with no teams used, matching the state the Path Survival Alert tracks. Week-over-week drift is measured against the prior same-state snapshot from 2026-09-09.

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