path survival · 2 min read
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations
Same-state Monte Carlo snapshots for 2026 Week 1: which top survivor options moved in the simulated season paths as the market shifted.
The Detroit Lions gained ground in today’s full-season survivor simulations. Because both simulations used the same starting state and random seed, the change reflects movement in the betting market rather than the calendar, a new opponent, or simulation noise.
- Top-10 equity teams checked
- 10
- Teams past the threshold
- 1
- Biggest move
- Detroit Lions 1.04pp
- Hours between snapshots
- 24
Detroit Lions — +1.04pp
Detroit Lions (equity rank 3, current de-vigged win probability 73.7%) faces New Orleans Saints in Week 1: its share of winning simulated seasons moved up from 3.40% to 4.44% (1.04 percentage points) between two simulations run from an identical starting state.
The Detroit Lions’ share of winning simulated seasons rose from 3.40% to 4.44%, an increase of 1.04 percentage points. They rank third in equity and have a current de-vigged win probability of 73.7% against the New Orleans Saints in Week 1.
How to use it
Survivor players should read simulation drift as a sign that the market has changed the value of a team’s full-season path. It does not predict the Week 1 result or identify the best pick.
How this was built
Every day we re-run the same 10,000-trial full-season survivor simulation from an identical starting state: 2026 Week 1, no teams used, the same random seed and the same trial count. Only the live de-vigged betting odds change between runs, so a change in a team's share of winning simulated seasons is market drift and nothing else. A team appears here when it sits inside the week's top ten by equity score and its share moved at least 1 percentage point against the previous same-state run. Repeating the identical state with different seeds moves shares about 0.2 percentage points, which is why the bar sits well above that.
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