NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.561 equity (80.3% win probability) against Colts at 0.268 — a real gap of 0.293.

IND team page →KC team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DALOpponentvs NYJ
32.0%Win prob80.3%
0.268Equity score0.561
+5.5Spread11/11 books−10.0
51.5Game total47.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 2IND @ KC30-33 · KC

All-time series: 18 meetings · IND 12 — KC 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1450.6ELO rating1540.3
#26ELO rank#12
2-6Record5-2
AFC SouthDivisionAFC West
#3Division rank#2
L 35 · L 6 · L 6 · L 12 · W +17Last 5newest firstL 4 · L 17 · W +16 · W +3 · W +14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.0 · #17vs QB13.1 · #6
24.8 · #20vs RB20.2 · #12
27.4 · #6vs WR25.1 · #2
14.4 · #18vs TE17.8 · #24

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.86 (2026)Sacks / game1.17 (2026)
6.57Pressures / game8.5
6-9Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows37-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.6% · #17Pre-snap motion39.9% · #26
13.6% · #4Play action8.1% · #32
7.2% · #7RPO11.5% · #1
2.7% · #28Screen pass4.7% · #7
4.7% · #21No huddle2.4% · #32
58.7% · #12Shotgun67.6% · #2

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.4% · #8Man coverage37.0% · #9
28.2% · #14Blitz (5+ rushers)33.6% · #4
29.6% · #19Pressure33.6% · #6
IND scheme profile →KC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Indianapolis Colts

  • Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
  • Akeem Davis-GaitherLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Alec PierceWide ReceiverOut
  • Andrew OgletreeTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Anthony GouldWRFull Participation in Practice
  • Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
  • Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
  • Bryce BoettcherLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Chamarri ConnerSafetyOut
  • Drue TranquillLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Jeff CaldwellWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Jimmy HolidayWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Josh SimmonsOffensive TackleOut
  • Mansoor DelaneCBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Nick BoltonLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Nikko RemigioWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Omarr Norman-LottDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Patrick MahomesQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Peter WoodsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Rashee RiceWRLimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

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