Compare

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.410 equity (56.8% win probability) against Colts at 0.331 — a real gap of 0.080.

IND team page →KC team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BALOpponentvs DEN

38.6%Win prob56.8%

0.331Equity score0.410

+3.5Spread11/11 books−2.5

48.0Game total43.5

▲ 0.006Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 2IND @ KCnot played yet

All-time series: 17 meetings · IND 12 — KC 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1471.9ELO rating1519.9

#23ELO rank#16

8-9Record6-11

AFC SouthDivisionAFC West

#3Division rank#3

L 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17Last 5newest firstL 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.9 · #18vs QB15.1 · #13

20.0 · #10vs RB19.4 · #6

36.1 · #31vs WR27.3 · #10

15.2 · #25vs TE11.0 · #7

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game2.06 (2025)

9.88Pressures / game7.88

6-8Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows35-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.6% · #17Pre-snap motion39.9% · #26

13.6% · #4Play action8.1% · #32

7.2% · #7RPO11.5% · #1

2.7% · #28Screen pass4.7% · #7

4.7% · #21No huddle2.4% · #32

58.7% · #12Shotgun67.6% · #2

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.4% · #8Man coverage37.0% · #9

28.2% · #14Blitz (5+ rushers)33.6% · #4

29.6% · #19Pressure33.6% · #6

IND scheme profile →KC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Indianapolis Colts

A.J. HaulcySLimited Participation in Practice
Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
Andrew OgletreeTELimited Participation in Practice
Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDTFull Participation in Practice
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDEQuestionable
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
Hunter NourzadCenterOut
Isiah PachecoRBQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)