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Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Seahawks is the better survivor pick this week

Seahawks score 0.362 equity (47.4% win probability) against 49ers at 0.306 — a real gap of 0.056.

SEA team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NEOpponent@ LA

47.4%Win prob35.8%

0.362Equity score0.306

−0.0Spread4/11 books+3.5

29.5Game total47.5

▲ 0.163Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 5SF @ SEAnot played yet

Week 12SEA @ SFnot played yet

All-time series: 51 meetings · SEA 31 — SF 20. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1630.6ELO rating1559.3

#1ELO rank#9

14-3Record12-5

NFC WestDivisionNFC West

#1Division rank#2

W +16 · W +4 · W +35 · W +10 · W +17Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.0 · #7vs QB17.1 · #20

19.0 · #4vs RB23.6 · #22

26.3 · #4vs WR32.2 · #21

14.7 · #21vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.8 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

11.3Pressures / game5.95

12-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

45.8% · #13Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

10.7% · #20Play action10.8% · #17

1.9% · #28RPO0.6% · #31

2.6% · #29Screen pass3.0% · #23

5.8% · #18No huddle3.7% · #26

37.9% · #31Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

29.1% · #20Man coverage26.6% · #24

20.7% · #30Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

33.2% · #7Pressure23.2% · #31

SEA scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Seattle Seahawks

AJ BarnerTEFull Participation in Practice
AJ FinleySafetyInjured Reserve
Amari KightOffensive TackleOut
Anthony BradfordGFull Participation in Practice
Brandon PiliDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam AkersRunning BackOut
Charles CrossOffensive TackleQuestionable
Chazz SurrattLinebackerOut
Cody WhiteWide ReceiverQuestionable
Connor O'TooleLinebackerOut
Dareke YoungWide ReceiverOut
Derick HallLinebackerQuestionable

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)