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Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.410 equity (56.8% win probability) against Commanders at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.119.

KC team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DENOpponent@ PHI

56.8%Win prob31.9%

0.410Equity score0.291

−2.5Spread11/11 books+5.5

43.5Game total44.5

▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · KC 7 — WAS 0. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1519.9ELO rating1464.1

#16ELO rank#24

6-11Record5-12

AFC WestDivisionNFC East

#3Division rank#3

L 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.1 · #13vs QB19.5 · #30

19.4 · #6vs RB25.6 · #27

27.3 · #10vs WR34.9 · #25

11.0 · #7vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

7.88Pressures / game7.47

35-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

8.1% · #32Play action11.9% · #11

11.5% · #1RPO6.3% · #12

4.7% · #7Screen pass3.7% · #16

2.4% · #32No huddle50.2% · #1

67.6% · #2Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage32.0% · #15

33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

33.6% · #6Pressure31.3% · #14

KC scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

Ashton GillotteDEFull Participation in Practice
Chamarri ConnerSDid Not Participate In Practice
Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDefensive TackleOut
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDefensive EndOut
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDTLimited Participation in Practice
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)