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Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.410 equity (56.8% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.310 — a real gap of 0.100.

KC team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DENOpponent@ CIN

56.8%Win prob35.6%

0.410Equity score0.310

−2.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

43.5Game total50.5

▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 9 meetings · KC 3 — TB 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1519.9ELO rating1487.8

#16ELO rank#18

6-11Record8-9

AFC WestDivisionNFC South

#3Division rank#2

L 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.1 · #13vs QB19.5 · #29

19.4 · #6vs RB22.2 · #18

27.3 · #10vs WR31.5 · #19

11.0 · #7vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

7.88Pressures / game7.82

35-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

8.1% · #32Play action8.4% · #31

11.5% · #1RPO6.4% · #11

4.7% · #7Screen pass5.1% · #5

2.4% · #32No huddle5.5% · #19

67.6% · #2Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage30.3% · #18

33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

33.6% · #6Pressure34.1% · #3

KC scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2025 week 18 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDTFull Participation in Practice
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDEQuestionable
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
Hunter NourzadCenterOut
Isiah PachecoRBQuestionable

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)