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Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Steelers is the better survivor pick this week

Steelers score 0.459 equity (67.2% win probability) against Chiefs at 0.410 — a real gap of 0.049.

KC team page →PIT team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DENOpponentvs ATL

56.8%Win prob67.2%

0.410Equity score0.459

−2.5Spread11/11 books−5.0

43.5Game total41.5

▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 16 meetings · KC 8 — PIT 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1519.9ELO rating1529.4

#16ELO rank#13

6-11Record10-7

AFC WestDivisionAFC North

#3Division rank#1

L 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10Last 5newest firstL 24 · W +2 · L 7 · W +5 · W +13

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.1 · #13vs QB18.8 · #27

19.4 · #6vs RB19.5 · #8

27.3 · #10vs WR35.2 · #26

11.0 · #7vs TE16.6 · #29

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.83 (2025)

7.88Pressures / game9

35-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-18

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion43.4% · #16

8.1% · #32Play action9.2% · #27

11.5% · #1RPO7.0% · #10

4.7% · #7Screen pass6.6% · #1

2.4% · #32No huddle9.7% · #7

67.6% · #2Shotgun54.2% · #17

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage36.9% · #10

33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)31.4% · #8

33.6% · #6Pressure29.5% · #20

KC scheme profile →PIT scheme profile →

Injury report

2025 week 18 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDTFull Participation in Practice
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDEQuestionable
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
Hunter NourzadCenterOut
Isiah PachecoRBQuestionable

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron RodgersQuarterbackQuestionable
Alex HighsmithLinebackerOut
Andrus PeatGuardQuestionable
Brandin EcholsCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon JohnsonWide ReceiverQuestionable
Broderick JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Calvin Austin IIIWide ReceiverQuestionable
Cameron McCutcheonCornerbackInjured Reserve
Christian KuntzLong SnapperQuestionable
Chuck ClarkSafetyOut
Darius SlayCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)