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Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Jets

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.410 equity (56.8% win probability) against Jets at 0.354 — a real gap of 0.056.

KC team page →NYJ team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DENOpponent@ TEN

56.8%Win prob47.4%

0.410Equity score0.354

−2.5Spread11/11 books+1.5

43.5Game total38.5

▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9NYJ @ KCnot played yet

All-time series: 11 meetings · KC 6 — NYJ 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1519.9ELO rating1379.3

#16ELO rank#30

6-11Record3-14

AFC WestDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#4

L 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10Last 5newest firstL 27 · L 32 · L 23 · L 28 · L 24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.1 · #13vs QB19.9 · #31

19.4 · #6vs RB28.0 · #31

27.3 · #10vs WR30.3 · #16

11.0 · #7vs TE15.2 · #24

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game1.53 (2025)

7.88Pressures / game5.18

35-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows3-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion49.8% · #7

8.1% · #32Play action8.6% · #29

11.5% · #1RPO7.1% · #8

4.7% · #7Screen pass3.4% · #17

2.4% · #32No huddle8.1% · #10

67.6% · #2Shotgun59.8% · #8

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage40.5% · #6

33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)28.3% · #13

33.6% · #6Pressure24.8% · #30

KC scheme profile →NYJ scheme profile →

Injury report

2025 week 18 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDTFull Participation in Practice
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDEQuestionable
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
Hunter NourzadCenterOut
Isiah PachecoRBQuestionable

New York Jets

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Allen LazardWide ReceiverOut
Andre CiscoSafetyQuestionable
Arian SmithWide ReceiverOut
Azareye'h ThomasCornerbackQuestionable
Braelon AllenRunning BackOut
Breece HallRBFull Participation in Practice
Bump CooperCornerbackInjured Reserve
Byron CowartDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JonesLinebackerOut
Chris Smith IISafetyOut
D'Angelo PondsCBLimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)