NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.561 equity (80.3% win probability) against Patriots at 0.450 — a real gap of 0.111.

KC team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NYJOpponentvs GB
80.3%Win prob60.5%
0.561Equity score0.450
−10.0Spread11/11 books−3.0
47.5Game total45.5
▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.009

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 15NE @ KCnot played yet

All-time series: 15 meetings · KC 7 — NE 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1540.3ELO rating1557.2
#12ELO rank#7
5-2Record5-3
AFC WestDivisionAFC East
#2Division rank#2
L 4 · L 17 · W +16 · W +3 · W +14Last 5newest firstW +5 · L 6 · W +7 · W +28 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #6vs QB15.1 · #10
20.2 · #12vs RB18.9 · #6
25.1 · #2vs WR33.8 · #20
17.8 · #24vs TE11.9 · #8

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.17 (2026)Sacks / game2.43 (2026)
8.5Pressures / game8.14
37-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows10-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24
8.1% · #32Play action10.8% · #19
11.5% · #1RPO1.3% · #30
4.7% · #7Screen pass2.3% · #30
2.4% · #32No huddle2.8% · #29
67.6% · #2Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage32.5% · #14
33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7
33.6% · #6Pressure29.8% · #18
KC scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Chamarri ConnerSafetyOut
  • Drue TranquillLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Jeff CaldwellWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Jimmy HolidayWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Josh SimmonsOffensive TackleOut
  • Mansoor DelaneCBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Nick BoltonLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Nikko RemigioWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Omarr Norman-LottDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Patrick MahomesQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Peter WoodsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Rashee RiceWRLimited Participation in Practice

New England Patriots

  • A.J. BrownWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Alijah Vera-TuckerGuardOut
  • Ben BrownCenterOut
  • Carlton Davis IIICBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Channing CanadaCornerbackOut
  • Christian BarmoreDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Drake MayeQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Dre'Mont JonesLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Gabe JacasLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Greg Van RotenGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Hunter HenryTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Karon PruntyCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

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