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Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.410 equity (56.8% win probability) against Patriots at 0.388 — a real gap of 0.022.

KC team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DENOpponent@ SEA

56.8%Win prob52.6%

0.410Equity score0.388

−2.5Spread11/4 books−0.0

43.5Game total29.5

▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 15NE @ KCnot played yet

All-time series: 15 meetings · KC 7 — NE 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1519.9ELO rating1561.9

#16ELO rank#8

6-11Record14-3

AFC WestDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#1

L 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.1 · #13vs QB14.7 · #11

19.4 · #6vs RB19.0 · #5

27.3 · #10vs WR29.2 · #13

11.0 · #7vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

7.88Pressures / game7.95

35-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

8.1% · #32Play action10.8% · #19

11.5% · #1RPO1.3% · #30

4.7% · #7Screen pass2.3% · #30

2.4% · #32No huddle2.8% · #29

67.6% · #2Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage32.5% · #14

33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

33.6% · #6Pressure29.8% · #18

KC scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

Ashton GillotteDEFull Participation in Practice
Chamarri ConnerSDid Not Participate In Practice
Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDefensive TackleOut
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDefensive EndOut
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)