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Kansas City Chiefs vs Minnesota Vikings

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.410 equity (56.8% win probability) against Vikings at 0.382 — a real gap of 0.029.

KC team page →MIN team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DENOpponentvs GB

56.8%Win prob53.0%

0.410Equity score0.382

−2.5Spread11/11 books−1.5

43.5Game total46.5

▼ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.002

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · KC 5 — MIN 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1519.9ELO rating1547.9

#16ELO rank#10

6-11Record9-8

AFC WestDivisionNFC North

#3Division rank#4

L 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10Last 5newest firstW +13 · W +13 · W +3 · W +8 · W +31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.1 · #13vs QB11.1 · #1

19.4 · #6vs RB19.6 · #9

27.3 · #10vs WR23.7 · #1

11.0 · #7vs TE10.7 · #5

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.88 (2025)

7.88Pressures / game9.06

35-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows11-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion41.3% · #23

8.1% · #32Play action12.5% · #8

11.5% · #1RPO3.7% · #20

4.7% · #7Screen pass4.2% · #10

2.4% · #32No huddle6.1% · #15

67.6% · #2Shotgun45.6% · #26

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage19.0% · #32

33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)46.2% · #1

33.6% · #6Pressure34.1% · #4

KC scheme profile →MIN scheme profile →

Injury report

2025 week 18 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDTFull Participation in Practice
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDEQuestionable
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
Hunter NourzadCenterOut
Isiah PachecoRBQuestionable

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr.Running BackQuestionable
Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
Austin KeysLinebackerOut
Ben SimsTight EndOut
Ben YurosekTight EndOut
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Brian O'NeillOffensive TackleOut
Caleb TiernanTLimited Participation in Practice
Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
Christian DarrisawOffensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)