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Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.561 equity (80.3% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.230 — a real gap of 0.331.

KC team page →MIA team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NYJOpponentvs DET

80.3%Win prob26.5%

0.561Equity score0.230

−10.0Spread11/11 books+7.0

47.5Game total50.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 3KC @ MIA24-10 · KC

All-time series: 11 meetings · KC 8 — MIA 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1540.3ELO rating1442.8

#12ELO rank#27

5-2Record1-6

AFC WestDivisionAFC East

#2Division rank#4

L 4 · L 17 · W +16 · W +3 · W +14Last 5newest firstL 5 · W +3 · L 7 · L 5 · L 14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #6vs QB20.0 · #24

20.2 · #12vs RB26.5 · #25

25.1 · #2vs WR25.4 · #3

17.8 · #24vs TE19.2 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.17 (2026)Sacks / game1 (2026)

8.5Pressures / game6.83

37-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows7-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion55.9% · #1

8.1% · #32Play action12.9% · #6

11.5% · #1RPO4.4% · #16

4.7% · #7Screen pass5.2% · #4

2.4% · #32No huddle3.1% · #28

67.6% · #2Shotgun57.9% · #13

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage28.4% · #21

33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)33.1% · #5

33.6% · #6Pressure27.2% · #28

KC scheme profile →MIA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

Chamarri ConnerSafetyOut
Drue TranquillLBFull Participation in Practice
Jeff CaldwellWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Jimmy HolidayWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Josh SimmonsOffensive TackleOut
Mansoor DelaneCBLimited Participation in Practice
Nick BoltonLBFull Participation in Practice
Nikko RemigioWRLimited Participation in Practice
Omarr Norman-LottDTLimited Participation in Practice
Patrick MahomesQBFull Participation in Practice
Peter WoodsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
Rashee RiceWRLimited Participation in Practice

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLBLimited Participation in Practice
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(mentions Chiefs)