Compare

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chargers is the better survivor pick this week

Chargers score 0.551 equity (80.1% win probability) against Chiefs at 0.414 — a real gap of 0.137.

KC team page →LAC team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DENOpponentvs ARI

56.9%Win prob80.1%

0.414Equity score0.551

−2.5Spread11/11 books−9.5

43.5Game total47.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 6LAC @ KCnot played yet

Week 17KC @ LACnot played yet

All-time series: 54 meetings · KC 31 — LAC 23. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1519.9ELO rating1536.9

#16ELO rank#11

6-11Record11-6

AFC WestDivisionAFC West

#3Division rank#2

L 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10Last 5newest firstL 13 · L 16 · L 4 · W +17 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.1 · #13vs QB12.6 · #2

19.4 · #6vs RB18.7 · #3

27.3 · #10vs WR27.4 · #11

11.0 · #7vs TE10.5 · #4

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.78 (2025)

7.88Pressures / game8

35-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-16

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion42.2% · #19

8.1% · #32Play action11.5% · #14

11.5% · #1RPO2.0% · #27

4.7% · #7Screen pass2.8% · #25

2.4% · #32No huddle3.9% · #25

67.6% · #2Shotgun59.0% · #10

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage23.6% · #27

33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)22.1% · #27

33.6% · #6Pressure31.3% · #12

KC scheme profile →LAC scheme profile →

Injury report

2025 week 18 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDTFull Participation in Practice
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDEQuestionable
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
Hunter NourzadCenterOut
Isiah PachecoRBQuestionable

Los Angeles Chargers

Benjamin St-JusteCornerbackOut
Bobby HartOffensive TackleOut
Bradley BozemanCenterOut
Brenen ThompsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Bud DupreeLinebackerQuestionable
Cam HartCornerbackOut
Da'Shawn HandDefensive TackleQuestionable
Deane LeonardCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Del'Shawn PhillipsLinebackerOut
Dez FitzpatrickWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Donte JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
Elijah MoldenCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(mentions Chargers)