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Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.561 equity (80.3% win probability) against Chargers at 0.270 — a real gap of 0.291.

KC team page →LAC team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NYJOpponentvs HOU

80.3%Win prob33.0%

0.561Equity score0.270

−10.0Spread11/11 books+5.0

47.5Game total40.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 6LAC @ KC6-22 · KC

Week 17KC @ LACnot played yet

All-time series: 55 meetings · KC 32 — LAC 23. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1540.3ELO rating1462.4

#12ELO rank#23

5-2Record0-7

AFC WestDivisionAFC West

#2Division rank#4

L 4 · L 17 · W +16 · W +3 · W +14Last 5newest firstL 15 · L 16 · L 6 · L 7 · L 8

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #6vs QB13.5 · #8

20.2 · #12vs RB23.9 · #19

25.1 · #2vs WR30.6 · #14

17.8 · #24vs TE10.2 · #5

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.17 (2026)Sacks / game1.83 (2026)

8.5Pressures / game7.67

37-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows15-16

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion42.2% · #19

8.1% · #32Play action11.5% · #14

11.5% · #1RPO2.0% · #27

4.7% · #7Screen pass2.8% · #25

2.4% · #32No huddle3.9% · #25

67.6% · #2Shotgun59.0% · #10

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage23.6% · #27

33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)22.1% · #27

33.6% · #6Pressure31.3% · #12

KC scheme profile →LAC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

Chamarri ConnerSafetyOut
Drue TranquillLBFull Participation in Practice
Jeff CaldwellWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Jimmy HolidayWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Josh SimmonsOffensive TackleOut
Mansoor DelaneCBLimited Participation in Practice
Nick BoltonLBFull Participation in Practice
Nikko RemigioWRLimited Participation in Practice
Omarr Norman-LottDTLimited Participation in Practice
Patrick MahomesQBFull Participation in Practice
Peter WoodsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
Rashee RiceWRLimited Participation in Practice

Los Angeles Chargers

Benjamin St-JusteCornerbackOut
Bobby HartOffensive TackleOut
Bradley BozemanCenterOut
Brenen ThompsonWRDid Not Participate In Practice
Bud DupreeDELimited Participation in Practice
Cam HartCornerbackOut
Da'Shawn HandDefensive TackleQuestionable
Daiyan HenleyLBLimited Participation in Practice
David NjokuTELimited Participation in Practice
Deane LeonardCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Del'Shawn PhillipsLinebackerOut
Denzel PerrymanLBLimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(mentions Chiefs)