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Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.562 equity (80.4% win probability) against Raiders at 0.188 — a real gap of 0.374.

KC team page →LV team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NYJOpponent@ SF

80.4%Win prob20.6%

0.562Equity score0.188

−10.0Spread11/11 books+10.0

47.5Game total52.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 4KC @ LV30-27 · KC

Week 18LV @ KCnot played yet

All-time series: 55 meetings · KC 36 — LV 19. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1540.3ELO rating1432.0

#12ELO rank#29

5-2Record4-4

AFC WestDivisionAFC West

#2Division rank#3

L 4 · L 17 · W +16 · W +3 · W +14Last 5newest firstW +5 · L 14 · L 3 · L 28 · L 3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #6vs QB19.8 · #23

20.2 · #12vs RB25.3 · #21

25.1 · #2vs WR33.8 · #19

17.8 · #24vs TE18.2 · #25

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.17 (2026)Sacks / game2.29 (2026)

8.5Pressures / game11.14

37-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion41.4% · #22

8.1% · #32Play action12.4% · #9

11.5% · #1RPO3.2% · #23

4.7% · #7Screen pass4.1% · #12

2.4% · #32No huddle7.4% · #13

67.6% · #2Shotgun54.2% · #19

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage21.9% · #29

33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)22.4% · #26

33.6% · #6Pressure27.8% · #27

KC scheme profile →LV scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

Chamarri ConnerSafetyOut
Drue TranquillLBFull Participation in Practice
Jeff CaldwellWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Jimmy HolidayWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Josh SimmonsOffensive TackleOut
Mansoor DelaneCBLimited Participation in Practice
Nick BoltonLBFull Participation in Practice
Nikko RemigioWRLimited Participation in Practice
Omarr Norman-LottDTLimited Participation in Practice
Patrick MahomesQBFull Participation in Practice
Peter WoodsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
Rashee RiceWRLimited Participation in Practice

Las Vegas Raiders

Adam ButlerDefensive TackleQuestionable
Aidan O'ConnellQuarterbackOut
AJ ColePunterQuestionable
Alex CappaGuardQuestionable
Andre Carter IIDefensive EndQuestionable
Brock BowersTight EndOut
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Caleb RogersGuardOut
Charles SnowdenDefensive EndOut
Darien PorterCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Darnay HolmesCornerbackOut
Decamerion RichardsonCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(mentions Chiefs)