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Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Raiders is the better survivor pick this week

Raiders score 0.424 equity (60.5% win probability) against Chiefs at 0.414 — a real gap of 0.011.

KC team page →LV team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DENOpponentvs MIA

56.9%Win prob60.5%

0.414Equity score0.424

−2.5Spread11/11 books−3.0

43.5Game total40.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 4KC @ LVnot played yet

Week 18LV @ KCnot played yet

All-time series: 54 meetings · KC 35 — LV 19. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1519.9ELO rating1373.0

#16ELO rank#31

6-11Record3-14

AFC WestDivisionAFC West

#3Division rank#4

L 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 24 · L 2 · L 31 · L 7

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.1 · #13vs QB16.1 · #16

19.4 · #6vs RB23.4 · #21

27.3 · #10vs WR33.5 · #22

11.0 · #7vs TE10.1 · #2

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game2.12 (2025)

7.88Pressures / game6.76

35-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #26Pre-snap motion41.4% · #22

8.1% · #32Play action12.4% · #9

11.5% · #1RPO3.2% · #23

4.7% · #7Screen pass4.1% · #12

2.4% · #32No huddle7.4% · #13

67.6% · #2Shotgun54.2% · #19

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.0% · #9Man coverage21.9% · #29

33.6% · #4Blitz (5+ rushers)22.4% · #26

33.6% · #6Pressure27.8% · #27

KC scheme profile →LV scheme profile →

Injury report

2025 week 18 · nflverse + highlightly

Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDTFull Participation in Practice
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDEQuestionable
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
Hunter NourzadCenterOut
Isiah PachecoRBQuestionable

Las Vegas Raiders

Adam ButlerDefensive TackleQuestionable
Aidan O'ConnellQuarterbackOut
AJ ColePunterQuestionable
Alex CappaGuardQuestionable
Andre Carter IIDefensive EndQuestionable
Ashton JeantyRBFull Participation in Practice
Brock BowersTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Caleb RogersGuardOut
Charles SnowdenDefensive EndOut
Darnay HolmesCornerbackOut
Decamerion RichardsonCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)