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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.536 equity (77.7% win probability) against Chiefs at 0.410 — a real gap of 0.125.

JAX team page →KC team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs CLEOpponentvs DEN

77.7%Win prob56.8%

0.536Equity score0.410

−8.5Spread11/11 books−2.5

40.0Game total43.5

▲ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 15 meetings · JAX 5 — KC 10. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1528.9ELO rating1519.9

#14ELO rank#16

13-4Record6-11

AFC SouthDivisionAFC West

#1Division rank#3

L 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28Last 5newest firstL 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.9 · #15vs QB15.1 · #13

18.7 · #2vs RB19.4 · #6

31.2 · #17vs WR27.3 · #10

14.8 · #22vs TE11.0 · #7

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2025)Sacks / game2.06 (2025)

9.28Pressures / game7.88

5-5Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows35-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.1% · #12Pre-snap motion39.9% · #26

10.2% · #22Play action8.1% · #32

3.6% · #21RPO11.5% · #1

3.8% · #15Screen pass4.7% · #7

6.1% · #16No huddle2.4% · #32

50.5% · #24Shotgun67.6% · #2

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

25.4% · #26Man coverage37.0% · #9

27.3% · #18Blitz (5+ rushers)33.6% · #4

27.9% · #26Pressure33.6% · #6

JAX scheme profile →KC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDTFull Participation in Practice
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDEQuestionable
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
Hunter NourzadCenterOut
Isiah PachecoRBQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)