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Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Titans is the better survivor pick this week

Titans score 0.391 equity (52.8% win probability) against Colts at 0.325 — a real gap of 0.066.

IND team page →TEN team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BALOpponentvs NYJ

38.5%Win prob52.8%

0.325Equity score0.391

+3.5Spread11/11 books−1.5

48.0Game total38.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 6TEN @ INDnot played yet

Week 15IND @ TENnot played yet

All-time series: 49 meetings · IND 34 — TEN 15. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1471.9ELO rating1362.6

#23ELO rank#32

8-9Record3-14

AFC SouthDivisionAFC South

#3Division rank#4

L 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17Last 5newest firstL 34 · L 8 · W +17 · L 13 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.9 · #18vs QB19.0 · #28

20.0 · #10vs RB21.6 · #14

36.1 · #31vs WR35.6 · #28

15.2 · #25vs TE14.2 · #19

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

9.88Pressures / game9.06

6-8Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows6-7

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.6% · #17Pre-snap motion35.5% · #29

13.6% · #4Play action9.9% · #24

7.2% · #7RPO8.6% · #3

2.7% · #28Screen pass5.7% · #2

4.7% · #21No huddle8.2% · #9

58.7% · #12Shotgun58.9% · #11

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.4% · #8Man coverage27.1% · #22

28.2% · #14Blitz (5+ rushers)22.9% · #24

29.6% · #19Pressure29.5% · #21

IND scheme profile →TEN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Indianapolis Colts

A.J. HaulcySLimited Participation in Practice
Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
Andrew OgletreeTELimited Participation in Practice
Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Tennessee Titans

Ali GayeLinebackerQuestionable
Amani HookerSafetyOut
Anfernee OrjiLinebackerInjured Reserve
Arden KeyLinebackerQuestionable
Blake HanceGuardQuestionable
Bryce OliverWide ReceiverOut
C.J. RavenellDefensive EndOut
Calvin RidleyWide ReceiverOut
Cam HorsleyDefensive TackleOut
Cam WardQuarterbackOut
Cedric GrayLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Chandler BrewerOffensive TackleInjured Reserve

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(mentions Titans)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)