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Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

49ers is the better survivor pick this week

49ers score 0.561 equity (79.4% win probability) against Colts at 0.268 — a real gap of 0.293.

IND team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DALOpponentvs LV

32.0%Win prob79.4%

0.268Equity score0.561

+5.5Spread11/11 books−10.0

51.5Game total52.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · IND 5 — SF 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1450.6ELO rating1575.5

#26ELO rank#3

2-6Record6-1

AFC SouthDivisionNFC West

#3Division rank#1

L 35 · L 6 · L 6 · L 12 · W +17Last 5newest firstL 9 · W +6 · W +3 · W +10 · W +6

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.0 · #17vs QB—

24.8 · #20vs RB—

27.4 · #6vs WR—

14.4 · #18vs TE—

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.86 (2026)Sacks / game2.14 (2026)

6.57Pressures / game9.71

6-9Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows24-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.6% · #17Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

13.6% · #4Play action10.8% · #17

7.2% · #7RPO0.6% · #31

2.7% · #28Screen pass3.0% · #23

4.7% · #21No huddle3.7% · #26

58.7% · #12Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.4% · #8Man coverage26.6% · #24

28.2% · #14Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

29.6% · #19Pressure23.2% · #31

IND scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Indianapolis Colts

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Akeem Davis-GaitherLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Alec PierceWide ReceiverOut
Andrew OgletreeTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Anthony GouldWRFull Participation in Practice
Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Bryce BoettcherLBFull Participation in Practice
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable

San Francisco 49ers

Christian KirkWRLimited Participation in Practice
Christian McCaffreyRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Deebo Samuel Sr.WRDid Not Participate In Practice
Demarcus RobinsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Garret WallowLBLimited Participation in Practice
Kurtis RourkeQuarterbackOut
Luke GiffordLBLimited Participation in Practice
Marques SigleSLimited Participation in Practice
Mike EvansWRDid Not Participate In Practice
Mykel WilliamsDEFull Participation in Practice
Nate HobbsCBLimited Participation in Practice
Nick BosaDELimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)