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Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jets is the better survivor pick this week

Jets score 0.354 equity (47.4% win probability) against Colts at 0.331 — a real gap of 0.023.

IND team page →NYJ team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BALOpponent@ TEN

38.6%Win prob47.4%

0.331Equity score0.354

+3.5Spread11/11 books+1.5

48.0Game total38.5

▲ 0.006Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 19 meetings · IND 11 — NYJ 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1471.9ELO rating1379.3

#23ELO rank#30

8-9Record3-14

AFC SouthDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#4

L 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17Last 5newest firstL 27 · L 32 · L 23 · L 28 · L 24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.9 · #18vs QB19.9 · #31

20.0 · #10vs RB28.0 · #31

36.1 · #31vs WR30.3 · #16

15.2 · #25vs TE15.2 · #24

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game1.53 (2025)

9.88Pressures / game5.18

6-8Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows3-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.6% · #17Pre-snap motion49.8% · #7

13.6% · #4Play action8.6% · #29

7.2% · #7RPO7.1% · #8

2.7% · #28Screen pass3.4% · #17

4.7% · #21No huddle8.1% · #10

58.7% · #12Shotgun59.8% · #8

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.4% · #8Man coverage40.5% · #6

28.2% · #14Blitz (5+ rushers)28.3% · #13

29.6% · #19Pressure24.8% · #30

IND scheme profile →NYJ scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Indianapolis Colts

A.J. HaulcySFull Participation in Practice
Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
Andrew OgletreeTEFull Participation in Practice
Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
Anthony RichardsonQBFull Participation in Practice
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
Chad MumaLinebackerOut

New York Jets

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Allen LazardWide ReceiverOut
Andre CiscoSafetyQuestionable
Arian SmithWide ReceiverOut
Azareye'h ThomasCornerbackQuestionable
Braelon AllenRunning BackOut
Breece HallRBFull Participation in Practice
Bump CooperCornerbackInjured Reserve
Byron CowartDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JonesLinebackerOut
Chris Smith IISafetyOut
D'Angelo PondsCBLimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)