NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Colts is the better survivor pick this week

Colts score 0.331 equity (38.6% win probability) against Saints at 0.250 — a real gap of 0.081.

IND team page →NO team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BALOpponent@ DET
38.6%Win prob26.8%
0.331Equity score0.250
+3.5Spread11/11 books+7.0
48.0Game total50.0
▲ 0.006Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · IND 2 — NO 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1471.9ELO rating1432.4
#23ELO rank#26
8-9Record6-11
AFC SouthDivisionNFC South
#3Division rank#4
L 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17Last 5newest firstL 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.9 · #18vs QB14.0 · #8
20.0 · #10vs RB20.8 · #13
36.1 · #31vs WR27.8 · #12
15.2 · #25vs TE12.5 · #13

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game2.59 (2025)
9.88Pressures / game8.53
6-8Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows4-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.6% · #17Pre-snap motion49.7% · #8
13.6% · #4Play action9.6% · #25
7.2% · #7RPO4.7% · #15
2.7% · #28Screen pass2.7% · #26
4.7% · #21No huddle18.7% · #2
58.7% · #12Shotgun65.7% · #5

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.4% · #8Man coverage22.1% · #28
28.2% · #14Blitz (5+ rushers)25.6% · #21
29.6% · #19Pressure28.2% · #24
IND scheme profile →NO scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Indianapolis Colts

  • A.J. HaulcySFull Participation in Practice
  • Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
  • Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Andrew OgletreeTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
  • Anthony RichardsonQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
  • Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
  • Chad MumaLinebackerOut

New Orleans Saints

  • Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
  • Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
  • Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Cesar RuizGuardOut
  • Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
  • Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
  • Davon GodchauxDTDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

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