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Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Vikings is the better survivor pick this week

Vikings score 0.382 equity (53.0% win probability) against Colts at 0.331 — a real gap of 0.051.

IND team page →MIN team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BALOpponentvs GB

38.6%Win prob53.0%

0.331Equity score0.382

+3.5Spread11/11 books−1.5

48.0Game total46.5

▲ 0.006Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.002

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 7IND @ MINnot played yet

All-time series: 8 meetings · IND 6 — MIN 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1471.9ELO rating1547.9

#23ELO rank#10

8-9Record9-8

AFC SouthDivisionNFC North

#3Division rank#4

L 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17Last 5newest firstW +13 · W +13 · W +3 · W +8 · W +31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.9 · #18vs QB11.1 · #1

20.0 · #10vs RB19.6 · #9

36.1 · #31vs WR23.7 · #1

15.2 · #25vs TE10.7 · #5

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game2.88 (2025)

9.88Pressures / game9.06

6-8Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows11-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.6% · #17Pre-snap motion41.3% · #23

13.6% · #4Play action12.5% · #8

7.2% · #7RPO3.7% · #20

2.7% · #28Screen pass4.2% · #10

4.7% · #21No huddle6.1% · #15

58.7% · #12Shotgun45.6% · #26

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.4% · #8Man coverage19.0% · #32

28.2% · #14Blitz (5+ rushers)46.2% · #1

29.6% · #19Pressure34.1% · #4

IND scheme profile →MIN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Indianapolis Colts

A.J. HaulcySLimited Participation in Practice
Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
Andrew OgletreeTELimited Participation in Practice
Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr.Running BackQuestionable
Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
Austin KeysLinebackerOut
Ben SimsTight EndOut
Ben YurosekTight EndOut
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Brian O'NeillOffensive TackleOut
Caleb TiernanTLimited Participation in Practice
Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
Christian DarrisawOffensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)