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Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Colts is the better survivor pick this week

Colts score 0.274 equity (32.0% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.238 — a real gap of 0.036.

IND team page →MIA team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DALOpponentvs DET

32.0%Win prob26.6%

0.274Equity score0.238

+5.5Spread11/11 books+7.0

51.5Game total50.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 10MIA @ INDnot played yet

All-time series: 19 meetings · IND 11 — MIA 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1450.6ELO rating1442.8

#26ELO rank#27

2-6Record1-6

AFC SouthDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#4

L 35 · L 6 · L 6 · L 12 · W +17Last 5newest firstL 5 · W +3 · L 7 · L 5 · L 14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.0 · #17vs QB20.0 · #24

24.8 · #20vs RB26.5 · #25

27.4 · #6vs WR25.4 · #3

14.4 · #18vs TE19.2 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.86 (2026)Sacks / game1 (2026)

6.57Pressures / game6.83

6-9Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows7-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.6% · #17Pre-snap motion55.9% · #1

13.6% · #4Play action12.9% · #6

7.2% · #7RPO4.4% · #16

2.7% · #28Screen pass5.2% · #4

4.7% · #21No huddle3.1% · #28

58.7% · #12Shotgun57.9% · #13

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.4% · #8Man coverage28.4% · #21

28.2% · #14Blitz (5+ rushers)33.1% · #5

29.6% · #19Pressure27.2% · #28

IND scheme profile →MIA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Indianapolis Colts

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Akeem Davis-GaitherLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Alec PierceWide ReceiverOut
Andrew OgletreeTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Anthony GouldWRFull Participation in Practice
Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Bryce BoettcherLBFull Participation in Practice
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLBLimited Participation in Practice
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)