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Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Colts is the better survivor pick this week

Colts score 0.331 equity (38.6% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.324 — a real gap of 0.007.

IND team page →MIA team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BALOpponent@ LV

38.6%Win prob39.8%

0.331Equity score0.324

+3.5Spread11/11 books+3.0

48.0Game total40.5

▲ 0.006Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.002

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 10MIA @ INDnot played yet

All-time series: 19 meetings · IND 11 — MIA 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1471.9ELO rating1475.1

#23ELO rank#21

8-9Record7-10

AFC SouthDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#3

L 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17Last 5newest firstL 28 · W +3 · L 24 · L 13 · W +24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.9 · #18vs QB18.2 · #23

20.0 · #10vs RB25.5 · #26

36.1 · #31vs WR29.9 · #14

15.2 · #25vs TE16.2 · #28

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)

9.88Pressures / game7.65

6-8Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows7-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.6% · #17Pre-snap motion55.9% · #1

13.6% · #4Play action12.9% · #6

7.2% · #7RPO4.4% · #16

2.7% · #28Screen pass5.2% · #4

4.7% · #21No huddle3.1% · #28

58.7% · #12Shotgun57.9% · #13

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.4% · #8Man coverage28.4% · #21

28.2% · #14Blitz (5+ rushers)33.1% · #5

29.6% · #19Pressure27.2% · #28

IND scheme profile →MIA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Indianapolis Colts

A.J. HaulcySFull Participation in Practice
Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
Andrew OgletreeTEFull Participation in Practice
Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
Anthony RichardsonQBFull Participation in Practice
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLinebackerOut
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)