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Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.535 equity (77.6% win probability) against Colts at 0.325 — a real gap of 0.210.

IND team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BALOpponentvs CLE

38.5%Win prob77.6%

0.325Equity score0.535

+3.5Spread11/11 books−8.5

48.0Game total40.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 8IND @ JAXnot played yet

Week 18JAX @ INDnot played yet

All-time series: 49 meetings · IND 27 — JAX 22. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1471.9ELO rating1528.9

#23ELO rank#14

8-9Record13-4

AFC SouthDivisionAFC South

#3Division rank#1

L 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.9 · #18vs QB15.9 · #15

20.0 · #10vs RB18.7 · #2

36.1 · #31vs WR31.2 · #17

15.2 · #25vs TE14.8 · #22

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2025)Sacks / game1.83 (2025)

9.88Pressures / game9.28

6-8Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.6% · #17Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12

13.6% · #4Play action10.2% · #22

7.2% · #7RPO3.6% · #21

2.7% · #28Screen pass3.8% · #15

4.7% · #21No huddle6.1% · #16

58.7% · #12Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.4% · #8Man coverage25.4% · #26

28.2% · #14Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18

29.6% · #19Pressure27.9% · #26

IND scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Indianapolis Colts

A.J. HaulcySLimited Participation in Practice
Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
Andrew OgletreeTELimited Participation in Practice
Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)