NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.555 equity (80.5% win probability) against Colts at 0.267 — a real gap of 0.288.

IND team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs DALOpponent@ BAL
31.9%Win prob80.5%
0.267Equity score0.555
+5.5Spread11/11 books−10.0
51.5Game total39.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 8IND @ JAX7-42 · JAX
Week 18JAX @ INDnot played yet

All-time series: 50 meetings · IND 27 — JAX 23. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1450.6ELO rating1543.1
#26ELO rank#11
2-6Record5-2
AFC SouthDivisionAFC South
#3Division rank#1
L 35 · L 6 · L 6 · L 12 · W +17Last 5newest firstW +35 · L 3 · W +2 · W +5 · W +29

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.0 · #17vs QB14.3 · #9
24.8 · #20vs RB17.0 · #2
27.4 · #6vs WR36.9 · #24
14.4 · #18vs TE11.0 · #7

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.86 (2026)Sacks / game1.67 (2026)
6.57Pressures / game9.5
6-9Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.6% · #17Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12
13.6% · #4Play action10.2% · #22
7.2% · #7RPO3.6% · #21
2.7% · #28Screen pass3.8% · #15
4.7% · #21No huddle6.1% · #16
58.7% · #12Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

37.4% · #8Man coverage25.4% · #26
28.2% · #14Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18
29.6% · #19Pressure27.9% · #26
IND scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Indianapolis Colts

  • Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
  • Akeem Davis-GaitherLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Alec PierceWide ReceiverOut
  • Andrew OgletreeTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Anthony GouldWRFull Participation in Practice
  • Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
  • Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
  • Bryce BoettcherLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleInjured Reserve
  • Antonio JohnsonSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Bhayshul TutenRBQuestionable
  • Branson CombsLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr.RBLimited Participation in Practice
  • DaVon HamiltonDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Eric MurraySDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Ezra ClevelandGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Jakobi MeyersWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Jarrian JonesCBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Travon WalkerDEQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

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