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Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.410 equity (56.8% win probability) against Texans at 0.361 — a real gap of 0.050.

HOU team page →KC team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BUFOpponentvs DEN

47.2%Win prob56.8%

0.361Equity score0.410

+1.5Spread11/11 books−2.5

45.0Game total43.5

▲ 0.008Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 17 meetings · HOU 6 — KC 11. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1573.1ELO rating1519.9

#6ELO rank#16

12-5Record6-11

AFC SouthDivisionAFC West

#2Division rank#3

L 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2Last 5newest firstL 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

12.8 · #3vs QB15.1 · #13

20.1 · #11vs RB19.4 · #6

25.9 · #3vs WR27.3 · #10

12.3 · #11vs TE11.0 · #7

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.06 (2025)

8.42Pressures / game7.88

10-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows35-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.7% · #14Pre-snap motion39.9% · #26

11.2% · #16Play action8.1% · #32

1.3% · #29RPO11.5% · #1

2.2% · #31Screen pass4.7% · #7

3.6% · #27No huddle2.4% · #32

51.0% · #23Shotgun67.6% · #2

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.5% · #16Man coverage37.0% · #9

22.9% · #23Blitz (5+ rushers)33.6% · #4

30.7% · #15Pressure33.6% · #6

HOU scheme profile →KC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

Kansas City Chiefs

Ashton GillotteDEFull Participation in Practice
Chamarri ConnerSDid Not Participate In Practice
Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDefensive TackleOut
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDefensive EndOut
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)