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Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Texans is the better survivor pick this week

Texans score 0.479 equity (66.9% win probability) against Colts at 0.267 — a real gap of 0.211.

HOU team page →IND team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LACOpponentvs DAL

66.9%Win prob31.9%

0.479Equity score0.267

−4.5Spread11/11 books+5.5

40.5Game total51.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 3HOU @ IND17-19 · IND

Week 11IND @ HOUnot played yet

All-time series: 50 meetings · HOU 15 — IND 34 · 1 ties. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1507.0ELO rating1450.6

#16ELO rank#26

2-5Record2-6

AFC SouthDivisionAFC South

#2Division rank#3

L 6 · W +3 · W +23 · L 4 · L 2Last 5newest firstL 35 · L 6 · L 6 · L 12 · W +17

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

—vs QB18.0 · #17

—vs RB24.8 · #20

—vs WR27.4 · #6

—vs TE14.4 · #18

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2026)Sacks / game1.86 (2026)

9.71Pressures / game6.57

10-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows6-9

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.7% · #14Pre-snap motion42.6% · #17

11.2% · #16Play action13.6% · #4

1.3% · #29RPO7.2% · #7

2.2% · #31Screen pass2.7% · #28

3.6% · #27No huddle4.7% · #21

51.0% · #23Shotgun58.7% · #12

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.5% · #16Man coverage37.4% · #8

22.9% · #23Blitz (5+ rushers)28.2% · #14

30.7% · #15Pressure29.6% · #19

HOU scheme profile →IND scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLBLimited Participation in Practice
Blake FisherTFull Participation in Practice
Braden SmithTLimited Participation in Practice
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTELimited Participation in Practice
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable

Indianapolis Colts

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Akeem Davis-GaitherLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Alec PierceWide ReceiverOut
Andrew OgletreeTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Anthony GouldWRFull Participation in Practice
Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Bryce BoettcherLBFull Participation in Practice
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)