NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Texans is the better survivor pick this week

Texans score 0.352 equity (47.3% win probability) against Colts at 0.325 — a real gap of 0.028.

HOU team page →IND team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs BUFOpponentvs BAL
47.3%Win prob38.5%
0.352Equity score0.325
+1.5Spread11/11 books+3.5
45.0Game total48.0
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 3HOU @ INDnot played yet
Week 11IND @ HOUnot played yet

All-time series: 49 meetings · HOU 15 — IND 33 · 1 ties. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1573.1ELO rating1471.9
#6ELO rank#23
12-5Record8-9
AFC SouthDivisionAFC South
#2Division rank#3
L 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2Last 5newest firstL 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

12.8 · #3vs QB16.9 · #18
20.1 · #11vs RB20.0 · #10
25.9 · #3vs WR36.1 · #31
12.3 · #11vs TE15.2 · #25

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)
8.42Pressures / game9.88
10-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows6-8

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.7% · #14Pre-snap motion42.6% · #17
11.2% · #16Play action13.6% · #4
1.3% · #29RPO7.2% · #7
2.2% · #31Screen pass2.7% · #28
3.6% · #27No huddle4.7% · #21
51.0% · #23Shotgun58.7% · #12

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.5% · #16Man coverage37.4% · #8
22.9% · #23Blitz (5+ rushers)28.2% · #14
30.7% · #15Pressure29.6% · #19
HOU scheme profile →IND scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Houston Texans

  • Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
  • Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
  • Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
  • Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
  • Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
  • Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
  • British BrooksRunning BackOut
  • C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
  • C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
  • Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
  • Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

Indianapolis Colts

  • A.J. HaulcySLimited Participation in Practice
  • Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
  • Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Andrew OgletreeTELimited Participation in Practice
  • Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
  • Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
  • Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
  • Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
  • Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Relevant to this matchup

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