NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.561 equity (80.3% win probability) against Packers at 0.300 — a real gap of 0.261.

GB team page →KC team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ NEOpponentvs NYJ
39.5%Win prob80.3%
0.300Equity score0.561
+3.0Spread11/11 books−10.0
45.5Game total47.5
▲ 0.009Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · GB 4 — KC 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1531.1ELO rating1540.3
#13ELO rank#12
5-3Record5-2
NFC NorthDivisionAFC West
#4Division rank#2
W +8 · L 3 · W +10 · W +24 · W +3Last 5newest firstL 4 · L 17 · W +16 · W +3 · W +14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

12.6 · #5vs QB13.1 · #6
25.5 · #23vs RB20.2 · #12
35.0 · #22vs WR25.1 · #2
9.0 · #2vs TE17.8 · #24

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.75 (2026)Sacks / game1.17 (2026)
9.38Pressures / game8.5
19-16-1Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows37-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.1% · #15Pre-snap motion39.9% · #26
11.7% · #12Play action8.1% · #32
7.9% · #4RPO11.5% · #1
3.3% · #18Screen pass4.7% · #7
7.2% · #14No huddle2.4% · #32
52.2% · #21Shotgun67.6% · #2

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.2% · #31Man coverage37.0% · #9
21.9% · #28Blitz (5+ rushers)33.6% · #4
30.7% · #16Pressure33.6% · #6
GB scheme profile →KC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Green Bay Packers

  • Aaron BanksGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Chris BrooksRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Christian WatsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Devonte WyattDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Javon HargraveDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Jayden ReedWide ReceiverOut
  • Josh WhyleTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Keisean NixonCBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Matthew GoldenWide ReceiverQuestionable
  • Micah ParsonsLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Sean RhyanCDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Travis GloverGDid Not Participate In Practice

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Chamarri ConnerSafetyOut
  • Drue TranquillLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Jeff CaldwellWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Jimmy HolidayWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Josh SimmonsOffensive TackleOut
  • Mansoor DelaneCBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Nick BoltonLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Nikko RemigioWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Omarr Norman-LottDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Patrick MahomesQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Peter WoodsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Rashee RiceWRLimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

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