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Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.500 equity (73.2% win probability) against Chiefs at 0.410 — a real gap of 0.090.

DET team page →KC team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NOOpponentvs DEN

73.2%Win prob56.8%

0.500Equity score0.410

−7.0Spread11/11 books−2.5

50.0Game total43.5

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · DET 3 — KC 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1564.1ELO rating1519.9

#7ELO rank#16

9-8Record6-11

NFC NorthDivisionAFC West

#3Division rank#3

W +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14Last 5newest firstL 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #24vs QB15.1 · #13

19.4 · #7vs RB19.4 · #6

35.6 · #29vs WR27.3 · #10

13.7 · #17vs TE11.0 · #7

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2025)Sacks / game2.06 (2025)

9.25Pressures / game7.88

16-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows35-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion39.9% · #26

12.0% · #10Play action8.1% · #32

3.1% · #24RPO11.5% · #1

4.9% · #6Screen pass4.7% · #7

5.0% · #20No huddle2.4% · #32

42.3% · #30Shotgun67.6% · #2

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage37.0% · #9

28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)33.6% · #4

31.8% · #10Pressure33.6% · #6

DET scheme profile →KC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Kansas City Chiefs

Ashton GillotteDEFull Participation in Practice
Chamarri ConnerSDid Not Participate In Practice
Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDefensive TackleOut
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDefensive EndOut
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)