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Detroit Lions vs Indianapolis Colts

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.500 equity (73.2% win probability) against Colts at 0.331 — a real gap of 0.170.

DET team page →IND team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NOOpponentvs BAL

73.2%Win prob38.6%

0.500Equity score0.331

−7.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

50.0Game total48.0

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.006

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · DET 2 — IND 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1564.1ELO rating1471.9

#7ELO rank#23

9-8Record8-9

NFC NorthDivisionAFC South

#3Division rank#3

W +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14Last 5newest firstL 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #24vs QB16.9 · #18

19.4 · #7vs RB20.0 · #10

35.6 · #29vs WR36.1 · #31

13.7 · #17vs TE15.2 · #25

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)

9.25Pressures / game9.88

16-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows6-8

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion42.6% · #17

12.0% · #10Play action13.6% · #4

3.1% · #24RPO7.2% · #7

4.9% · #6Screen pass2.7% · #28

5.0% · #20No huddle4.7% · #21

42.3% · #30Shotgun58.7% · #12

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage37.4% · #8

28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)28.2% · #14

31.8% · #10Pressure29.6% · #19

DET scheme profile →IND scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Indianapolis Colts

A.J. HaulcySFull Participation in Practice
Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
Andrew OgletreeTEFull Participation in Practice
Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
Anthony RichardsonQBFull Participation in Practice
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)