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Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.560 equity (80.2% win probability) against Broncos at 0.442 — a real gap of 0.118.

DEN team page →KC team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponentvs NYJ

57.2%Win prob80.2%

0.442Equity score0.560

−2.5Spread11/11 books−10.0

44.0Game total47.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 1DEN @ KC10-31 · KC

Week 8KC @ DEN24-28 · DEN

All-time series: 56 meetings · DEN 25 — KC 31. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1589.8ELO rating1540.3

#2ELO rank#12

6-2Record5-2

AFC WestDivisionAFC West

#1Division rank#2

W +4 · W +14 · W +3 · W +6 · L 10Last 5newest firstL 4 · L 17 · W +16 · W +3 · W +14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

16.4 · #13vs QB13.1 · #6

25.3 · #22vs RB20.2 · #12

27.5 · #7vs WR25.1 · #2

16.7 · #23vs TE17.8 · #24

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2026)Sacks / game1.17 (2026)

11.14Pressures / game8.5

12-12Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows37-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion39.9% · #26

12.5% · #7Play action8.1% · #32

7.0% · #9RPO11.5% · #1

5.5% · #3Screen pass4.7% · #7

11.0% · #5No huddle2.4% · #32

54.3% · #16Shotgun67.6% · #2

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage37.0% · #9

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)33.6% · #4

33.7% · #5Pressure33.6% · #6

DEN scheme profile →KC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Brandon JonesSDid Not Participate In Practice
Caleb LohnerTight EndInjured Reserve
Courtland SuttonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Eyioma UwazurikeDEDid Not Participate In Practice
Frank CrumOffensive TackleInjured Reserve
Jaylen WaddleWRFull Participation in Practice
Jonah ColemanRunning BackInjured Reserve
Jonathon CooperLinebackerOut
Kris Abrams-DraineCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Levelle BaileyLinebackerInjured Reserve
Nick GargiuloGuardOut
Pat BryantWRFull Participation in Practice

Kansas City Chiefs

Chamarri ConnerSafetyOut
Drue TranquillLBFull Participation in Practice
Jeff CaldwellWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Jimmy HolidayWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Josh SimmonsOffensive TackleOut
Mansoor DelaneCBLimited Participation in Practice
Nick BoltonLBFull Participation in Practice
Nikko RemigioWRLimited Participation in Practice
Omarr Norman-LottDTLimited Participation in Practice
Patrick MahomesQBFull Participation in Practice
Peter WoodsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
Rashee RiceWRLimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: San Francisco 49ers Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)