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Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Broncos play Chiefs in Week 1

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices KC carries the higher survivor equity score.

DEN team page →KC team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ KCOpponentvs DEN

43.1%Win prob56.9%

0.336Equity score0.414

+2.5Spread11/11 books−2.5

43.5Game total43.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Head-to-head this week

week 1 · divisional · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Matchup: DEN @ KC
Spread (home): −2.5 (11 books)
Total: 43.5 (11 books)
Kickoff: Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:15

Opened KC −2.5, now KC −2.5 · no spread move yet · Total 42.5 → 43.5 (+1.0)(86 snapshots)

Forecast: 90.9°F · wind 14.1 mph · 0% precip · Clear

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 1DEN @ KCnot played yet

Week 8KC @ DENnot played yet

All-time series: 54 meetings · DEN 24 — KC 30. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1588.3ELO rating1519.9

#4ELO rank#16

14-3Record6-11

AFC WestDivisionAFC West

#1Division rank#3

L 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.2 · #9vs QB15.1 · #13

17.0 · #1vs RB19.4 · #6

27.0 · #9vs WR27.3 · #10

13.7 · #16vs TE11.0 · #7

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

4 (2025)Sacks / game2.06 (2025)

13.05Pressures / game7.88

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows35-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion39.9% · #26

12.5% · #7Play action8.1% · #32

7.0% · #9RPO11.5% · #1

5.5% · #3Screen pass4.7% · #7

11.0% · #5No huddle2.4% · #32

54.3% · #16Shotgun67.6% · #2

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage37.0% · #9

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)33.6% · #4

33.7% · #5Pressure33.6% · #6

DEN scheme profile →KC scheme profile →

Injury report

2025 week 21 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCQuestionable
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Bo NixQBOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLBOut
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumTFull Participation in Practice
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable

Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDTFull Participation in Practice
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDEQuestionable
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
Hunter NourzadCenterOut
Isiah PachecoRBQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)