NFL Survivor Edge

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Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Broncos is the better survivor pick this week

Broncos score 0.443 equity (57.2% win probability) against Colts at 0.274 — a real gap of 0.169.

DEN team page →IND team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponentvs DAL
57.2%Win prob32.0%
0.443Equity score0.274
−2.5Spread11/11 books+5.5
44.5Game total51.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 20 meetings · DEN 6 — IND 14. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1589.8ELO rating1450.6
#2ELO rank#26
6-2Record2-6
AFC WestDivisionAFC South
#1Division rank#3
W +4 · W +14 · W +3 · W +6 · L 10Last 5newest firstL 35 · L 6 · L 6 · L 12 · W +17

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

16.4 · #13vs QB18.0 · #17
25.3 · #22vs RB24.8 · #20
27.5 · #7vs WR27.4 · #6
16.7 · #23vs TE14.4 · #18

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2026)Sacks / game1.86 (2026)
11.14Pressures / game6.57
12-12Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows6-9

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion42.6% · #17
12.5% · #7Play action13.6% · #4
7.0% · #9RPO7.2% · #7
5.5% · #3Screen pass2.7% · #28
11.0% · #5No huddle4.7% · #21
54.3% · #16Shotgun58.7% · #12

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage37.4% · #8
32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)28.2% · #14
33.7% · #5Pressure29.6% · #19
DEN scheme profile →IND scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

  • Brandon JonesSDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Caleb LohnerTight EndInjured Reserve
  • Courtland SuttonWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Eyioma UwazurikeDEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Frank CrumOffensive TackleInjured Reserve
  • Jaylen WaddleWRFull Participation in Practice
  • Jonah ColemanRunning BackInjured Reserve
  • Jonathon CooperLinebackerOut
  • Kris Abrams-DraineCBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Levelle BaileyLinebackerInjured Reserve
  • Nick GargiuloGuardOut
  • Pat BryantWRFull Participation in Practice

Indianapolis Colts

  • Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
  • Akeem Davis-GaitherLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Alec PierceWide ReceiverOut
  • Andrew OgletreeTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Anthony GouldWRFull Participation in Practice
  • Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
  • Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
  • Bryce BoettcherLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

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