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Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Broncos is the better survivor pick this week

Broncos score 0.340 equity (43.2% win probability) against Colts at 0.331 — a real gap of 0.009.

DEN team page →IND team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ KCOpponentvs BAL

43.2%Win prob38.6%

0.340Equity score0.331

+2.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

43.5Game total48.0

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.006

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 20 meetings · DEN 6 — IND 14. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1588.3ELO rating1471.9

#4ELO rank#23

14-3Record8-9

AFC WestDivisionAFC South

#1Division rank#3

L 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.2 · #9vs QB16.9 · #18

17.0 · #1vs RB20.0 · #10

27.0 · #9vs WR36.1 · #31

13.7 · #16vs TE15.2 · #25

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

4 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)

13.05Pressures / game9.88

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows6-8

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion42.6% · #17

12.5% · #7Play action13.6% · #4

7.0% · #9RPO7.2% · #7

5.5% · #3Screen pass2.7% · #28

11.0% · #5No huddle4.7% · #21

54.3% · #16Shotgun58.7% · #12

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage37.4% · #8

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)28.2% · #14

33.7% · #5Pressure29.6% · #19

DEN scheme profile →IND scheme profile →

Injury report

2025 week 21 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCQuestionable
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Bo NixQBOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLBOut
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumTFull Participation in Practice
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable

Indianapolis Colts

A.J. HaulcySLimited Participation in Practice
Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
Andrew OgletreeTELimited Participation in Practice
Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)