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Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Cowboys is the better survivor pick this week

Cowboys score 0.426 equity (59.3% win probability) against Colts at 0.331 — a real gap of 0.096.

DAL team page →IND team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ NYGOpponentvs BAL

59.3%Win prob38.6%

0.426Equity score0.331

−3.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

48.0Game total48.0

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.006

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9DAL @ INDnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · DAL 4 — IND 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1485.3ELO rating1471.9

#19ELO rank#23

7-9-1Record8-9

NFC EastDivisionAFC South

#2Division rank#3

L 17 · W +7 · L 17 · L 8 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

23.3 · #32vs QB16.9 · #18

25.7 · #28vs RB20.0 · #10

39.3 · #32vs WR36.1 · #31

12.3 · #12vs TE15.2 · #25

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)

10.76Pressures / game9.88

24-13-1Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows6-8

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.1% · #11Pre-snap motion42.6% · #17

13.0% · #5Play action13.6% · #4

4.1% · #18RPO7.2% · #7

2.7% · #27Screen pass2.7% · #28

7.8% · #11No huddle4.7% · #21

51.7% · #22Shotgun58.7% · #12

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

26.0% · #25Man coverage37.4% · #8

28.4% · #12Blitz (5+ rushers)28.2% · #14

31.8% · #11Pressure29.6% · #19

DAL scheme profile →IND scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Dallas Cowboys

Ajani CorneliusTLimited Participation in Practice
Alijah ClarkSafetyOut
Bruce HarmonCornerbackQuestionable
Caelen CarsonCornerbackOut
CeeDee LambWide ReceiverOut
Christian MatthewCornerbackQuestionable
Cooper BeebeCenterQuestionable
DeMarvion OvershownLinebackerQuestionable
Donovan WilsonSafetyQuestionable
Earnest Brown IVDefensive EndQuestionable
Hakeem AdenijiOffensive TackleOut
Jack SanbornLinebackerOut

Indianapolis Colts

A.J. HaulcySLimited Participation in Practice
Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
Andrew OgletreeTELimited Participation in Practice
Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)