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Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.403 equity (56.1% win probability) against Browns at 0.214 — a real gap of 0.189.

CLE team page →KC team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ JAXOpponentvs DEN

22.3%Win prob56.1%

0.214Equity score0.403

+9.0Spread11/11 books−2.5

40.0Game total43.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 12 meetings · CLE 3 — KC 9. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1419.8ELO rating1519.9

#27ELO rank#16

5-12Record6-11

AFC NorthDivisionAFC West

#4Division rank#3

W +2 · W +7 · L 3 · L 28 · L 2Last 5newest firstL 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.3 · #5vs QB15.1 · #13

22.8 · #19vs RB19.4 · #6

26.9 · #8vs WR27.3 · #10

12.1 · #9vs TE11.0 · #7

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.12 (2025)Sacks / game2.06 (2025)

9.29Pressures / game7.88

6-9Primetime record2021–2024 standalone windows35-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.3% · #27Pre-snap motion39.9% · #26

11.2% · #15Play action8.1% · #32

3.0% · #25RPO11.5% · #1

4.2% · #11Screen pass4.7% · #7

7.5% · #12No huddle2.4% · #32

55.8% · #14Shotgun67.6% · #2

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

41.3% · #5Man coverage37.0% · #9

28.1% · #15Blitz (5+ rushers)33.6% · #4

35.1% · #1Pressure33.6% · #6

CLE scheme profile →KC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cleveland Browns

Adin HuntingtonDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex WrightDefensive EndOut
Anthony KendallCornerbackInjured Reserve
Blake WhiteheartTight EndQuestionable
Brenden BatesTight EndOut
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleQuestionable
Cameron McGroneLinebackerQuestionable
Carson SchwesingerLBFull Participation in Practice
Cedric TillmanWide ReceiverOut
Cornelius LucasOffensive TackleOut
David NjokuTight EndOut
Dawand JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable

Kansas City Chiefs

Ashton GillotteDEFull Participation in Practice
Chamarri ConnerSDid Not Participate In Practice
Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDefensive TackleOut
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDefensive EndOut
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)