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Chicago Bears vs Kansas City Chiefs

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.561 equity (80.3% win probability) against Bears at 0.500 — a real gap of 0.062.

CHI team page →KC team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponentvs NYJ

70.6%Win prob80.3%

0.500Equity score0.561

−6.0Spread11/11 books−10.0

47.5Game total47.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · CHI 3 — KC 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1546.5ELO rating1540.3

#9ELO rank#12

6-2Record5-2

NFC NorthDivisionAFC West

#2Division rank#2

W +17 · W +6 · W +8 · L 24 · W +11Last 5newest firstL 4 · L 17 · W +16 · W +3 · W +14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

19.1 · #22vs QB13.1 · #6

17.8 · #3vs RB20.2 · #12

31.2 · #15vs WR25.1 · #2

12.0 · #9vs TE17.8 · #24

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.71 (2026)Sacks / game1.17 (2026)

9Pressures / game8.5

12-15Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows37-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion39.9% · #26

14.7% · #2Play action8.1% · #32

3.6% · #22RPO11.5% · #1

4.1% · #13Screen pass4.7% · #7

4.3% · #24No huddle2.4% · #32

44.2% · #28Shotgun67.6% · #2

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage37.0% · #9

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)33.6% · #4

28.7% · #23Pressure33.6% · #6

CHI scheme profile →KC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Anthony Johnson Jr.SafetyInjured Reserve
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleDoubtful
Caleb WilliamsQuarterbackQuestionable
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Colston LovelandTEFull Participation in Practice
D'Marco JacksonLBQuestionable
Grady JarrettDefensive EndDoubtful
Jack SanbornLBFull Participation in Practice
Jamree KromahDefensive EndOut
Jordan van den BergDefensive TackleOut
Kentavius StreetDefensive TackleQuestionable
Keyshaun ElliottLinebackerOut

Kansas City Chiefs

Chamarri ConnerSafetyOut
Drue TranquillLBFull Participation in Practice
Jeff CaldwellWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Jimmy HolidayWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Josh SimmonsOffensive TackleOut
Mansoor DelaneCBLimited Participation in Practice
Nick BoltonLBFull Participation in Practice
Nikko RemigioWRLimited Participation in Practice
Omarr Norman-LottDTLimited Participation in Practice
Patrick MahomesQBFull Participation in Practice
Peter WoodsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
Rashee RiceWRLimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(mentions Chiefs)