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Chicago Bears vs Indianapolis Colts

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.418 equity (60.3% win probability) against Colts at 0.331 — a real gap of 0.087.

CHI team page →IND team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponentvs BAL

60.3%Win prob38.6%

0.418Equity score0.331

−3.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

47.0Game total48.0

▼ 0.011Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.006

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · CHI 3 — IND 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1510.3ELO rating1471.9

#17ELO rank#23

11-6Record8-9

NFC NorthDivisionAFC South

#1Division rank#3

L 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6Last 5newest firstL 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #22vs QB16.9 · #18

21.7 · #16vs RB20.0 · #10

35.5 · #27vs WR36.1 · #31

13.1 · #14vs TE15.2 · #25

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.22 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)

7.94Pressures / game9.88

9-15Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows6-8

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion42.6% · #17

14.7% · #2Play action13.6% · #4

3.6% · #22RPO7.2% · #7

4.1% · #13Screen pass2.7% · #28

4.3% · #24No huddle4.7% · #21

44.2% · #28Shotgun58.7% · #12

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage37.4% · #8

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)28.2% · #14

28.7% · #23Pressure29.6% · #19

CHI scheme profile →IND scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Indianapolis Colts

A.J. HaulcySFull Participation in Practice
Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
Andrew OgletreeTEFull Participation in Practice
Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
Anthony RichardsonQBFull Participation in Practice
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)