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Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.410 equity (56.8% win probability) against Bills at 0.389 — a real gap of 0.021.

BUF team page →KC team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ HOUOpponentvs DEN

52.8%Win prob56.8%

0.389Equity score0.410

−1.5Spread11/11 books−2.5

45.0Game total43.5

▼ 0.008Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 12KC @ BUFnot played yet

All-time series: 23 meetings · BUF 12 — KC 11. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1601.7ELO rating1519.9

#2ELO rank#16

12-5Record6-11

AFC EastDivisionAFC West

#2Division rank#3

L 3 · W +3 · W +27 · L 1 · W +3Last 5newest firstL 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.1 · #4vs QB15.1 · #13

24.4 · #25vs RB19.4 · #6

26.5 · #5vs WR27.3 · #10

—vs TE11.0 · #7

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.95 (2025)Sacks / game2.06 (2025)

7.84Pressures / game7.88

22-13Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows35-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion39.9% · #26

11.6% · #13Play action8.1% · #32

5.4% · #13RPO11.5% · #1

4.4% · #9Screen pass4.7% · #7

4.7% · #22No huddle2.4% · #32

42.6% · #29Shotgun67.6% · #2

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage37.0% · #9

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)33.6% · #4

34.2% · #2Pressure33.6% · #6

BUF scheme profile →KC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Baylon SpectorLinebackerInjured Reserve
Brad RobbinsPunterQuestionable
Brandin CooksWide ReceiverOut
Cam LewisCornerbackQuestionable
Chase LundtOffensive TackleOut
Christian BenfordCornerbackOut
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Curtis SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Daequan HardyCornerbackQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTight EndOut
DaQuan JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Darnell SavageSafetyOut

Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDTFull Participation in Practice
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDEQuestionable
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
Hunter NourzadCenterOut
Isiah PachecoRBQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)