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Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Chiefs is the better survivor pick this week

Chiefs score 0.561 equity (80.3% win probability) against Bills at 0.446 — a real gap of 0.115.

BUF team page →KC team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponentvs NYJ

61.0%Win prob80.3%

0.446Equity score0.561

−3.0Spread11/11 books−10.0

45.0Game total47.5

▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 12KC @ BUFnot played yet

All-time series: 23 meetings · BUF 12 — KC 11. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1603.7ELO rating1540.3

#1ELO rank#12

6-1Record5-2

AFC EastDivisionAFC West

#1Division rank#2

W +26 · W +3 · W +3 · L 3 · W +8Last 5newest firstL 4 · L 17 · W +16 · W +3 · W +14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #20vs QB13.1 · #6

27.4 · #27vs RB20.2 · #12

37.1 · #25vs WR25.1 · #2

14.1 · #17vs TE17.8 · #24

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2026)Sacks / game1.17 (2026)

10.83Pressures / game8.5

24-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows37-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion39.9% · #26

11.6% · #13Play action8.1% · #32

5.4% · #13RPO11.5% · #1

4.4% · #9Screen pass4.7% · #7

4.7% · #22No huddle2.4% · #32

42.6% · #29Shotgun67.6% · #2

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage37.0% · #9

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)33.6% · #4

34.2% · #2Pressure33.6% · #6

BUF scheme profile →KC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGFull Participation in Practice
Bradley ChubbLBFull Participation in Practice
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTEQuestionable
Dee AlfordCBQuestionable
DJ MooreWRQuestionable
Dorian StrongCornerbackOut
Ed OliverDEFull Participation in Practice
Greg GainesDTQuestionable
Joe AndreessenLBFull Participation in Practice
Joshua PalmerWide ReceiverOut
Landon JacksonDefensive EndOut

Kansas City Chiefs

Chamarri ConnerSafetyOut
Drue TranquillLBFull Participation in Practice
Jeff CaldwellWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Jimmy HolidayWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Josh SimmonsOffensive TackleOut
Mansoor DelaneCBLimited Participation in Practice
Nick BoltonLBFull Participation in Practice
Nikko RemigioWRLimited Participation in Practice
Omarr Norman-LottDTLimited Participation in Practice
Patrick MahomesQBFull Participation in Practice
Peter WoodsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
Rashee RiceWRLimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(mentions Chiefs)