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Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bills is the better survivor pick this week

Bills score 0.444 equity (61.6% win probability) against Colts at 0.267 — a real gap of 0.176.

BUF team page →IND team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponentvs DAL

61.6%Win prob31.9%

0.444Equity score0.267

−3.5Spread10/11 books+5.5

45.0Game total51.5

▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 16 meetings · BUF 6 — IND 10. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1603.7ELO rating1450.6

#1ELO rank#26

6-1Record2-6

AFC EastDivisionAFC South

#1Division rank#3

W +26 · W +3 · W +3 · L 3 · W +8Last 5newest firstL 35 · L 6 · L 6 · L 12 · W +17

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #20vs QB18.0 · #17

27.4 · #27vs RB24.8 · #20

37.1 · #25vs WR27.4 · #6

14.1 · #17vs TE14.4 · #18

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.83 (2026)Sacks / game1.86 (2026)

10.83Pressures / game6.57

24-13Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows6-9

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #6Pre-snap motion42.6% · #17

11.6% · #13Play action13.6% · #4

5.4% · #13RPO7.2% · #7

4.4% · #9Screen pass2.7% · #28

4.7% · #22No huddle4.7% · #21

42.6% · #29Shotgun58.7% · #12

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

31.3% · #17Man coverage37.4% · #8

26.4% · #20Blitz (5+ rushers)28.2% · #14

34.2% · #2Pressure29.6% · #19

BUF scheme profile →IND scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Buffalo Bills

Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGFull Participation in Practice
Bradley ChubbLBFull Participation in Practice
Cole BishopSafetyQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTEQuestionable
Dee AlfordCBQuestionable
DJ MooreWRQuestionable
Dorian StrongCornerbackOut
Ed OliverDEFull Participation in Practice
Greg GainesDTQuestionable
Joe AndreessenLBFull Participation in Practice
Joshua PalmerWide ReceiverOut
Landon JacksonDefensive EndOut

Indianapolis Colts

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Akeem Davis-GaitherLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Alec PierceWide ReceiverOut
Andrew OgletreeTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Anthony GouldWRFull Participation in Practice
Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Bryce BoettcherLBFull Participation in Practice
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: San Francisco 49ers Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)