NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Colts is the better survivor pick this week

Colts score 0.274 equity (32.0% win probability) against Ravens at 0.191 — a real gap of 0.083.

BAL team page →IND team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs JAXOpponentvs DAL
19.9%Win prob32.0%
0.191Equity score0.274
+9.5Spread11/11 books+5.5
39.5Game total51.5
▼ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 1BAL @ IND41-23 · BAL

All-time series: 17 meetings · BAL 7 — IND 10. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1515.1ELO rating1450.6
#14ELO rank#26
4-4Record2-6
AFC NorthDivisionAFC South
#4Division rank#3
L 26 · L 22 · L 3 · W +7 · W +6Last 5newest firstL 35 · L 6 · L 6 · L 12 · W +17

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #18vs QB18.0 · #17
19.5 · #8vs RB24.8 · #20
35.0 · #21vs WR27.4 · #6
13.5 · #12vs TE14.4 · #18

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2026)Sacks / game1.86 (2026)
8.14Pressures / game6.57
23-14Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows6-9

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

41.8% · #21Pre-snap motion42.6% · #17
8.9% · #28Play action13.6% · #4
4.4% · #17RPO7.2% · #7
2.8% · #24Screen pass2.7% · #28
2.7% · #30No huddle4.7% · #21
52.4% · #20Shotgun58.7% · #12

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

32.9% · #13Man coverage37.4% · #8
23.7% · #22Blitz (5+ rushers)28.2% · #14
28.1% · #25Pressure29.6% · #19
BAL scheme profile →IND scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Baltimore Ravens

  • Adam RandallRBQuestionable
  • Calais CampbellDTFull Participation in Practice
  • Jaylinn HawkinsSOut
  • Joe FagnanoQBFull Participation in Practice
  • John JenkinsDTFull Participation in Practice
  • John SimpsonGFull Participation in Practice
  • Justice HillRBFull Participation in Practice
  • Lamar JacksonQBOut
  • Mark AndrewsTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Matthew HibnerTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Nate WigginsCBQuestionable
  • Olaivavega IoaneGFull Participation in Practice

Indianapolis Colts

  • Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
  • Akeem Davis-GaitherLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Alec PierceWide ReceiverOut
  • Andrew OgletreeTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Anthony GouldWRFull Participation in Practice
  • Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
  • Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
  • Bryce BoettcherLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

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