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Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Colts is the better survivor pick this week

Colts score 0.331 equity (38.6% win probability) against Falcons at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.040.

ATL team page →IND team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ PITOpponentvs BAL

32.8%Win prob38.6%

0.291Equity score0.331

+5.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

41.5Game total48.0

▼ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.006

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · ATL 2 — IND 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1475.8ELO rating1471.9

#20ELO rank#23

8-9Record8-9

NFC SouthDivisionAFC South

#1Division rank#3

W +2 · W +3 · W +7 · W +1 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

16.3 · #17vs QB16.9 · #18

21.7 · #15vs RB20.0 · #10

33.6 · #23vs WR36.1 · #31

10.2 · #3vs TE15.2 · #25

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.35 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)

9.18Pressures / game9.88

7-6Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows6-8

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

53.0% · #3Pre-snap motion42.6% · #17

9.3% · #26Play action13.6% · #4

3.7% · #19RPO7.2% · #7

3.8% · #14Screen pass2.7% · #28

9.5% · #8No huddle4.7% · #21

66.0% · #4Shotgun58.7% · #12

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

33.4% · #12Man coverage37.4% · #8

34.9% · #2Blitz (5+ rushers)28.2% · #14

31.3% · #13Pressure29.6% · #19

ATL scheme profile →IND scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Atlanta Falcons

A.J. Terrell Jr.CornerbackOut
Billy Bowman Jr.CBLimited Participation in Practice
Brandon DorlusDTLimited Participation in Practice
Carlos Washington Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Casey WashingtonWide ReceiverOut
Clark Phillips IIICornerbackQuestionable
Cobee BryantCornerbackQuestionable
Da'Shawn HandDTLimited Participation in Practice
Darnell MooneyWide ReceiverOut
DeAngelo MaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Dee AlfordCornerbackQuestionable
Drake LondonWide ReceiverOut

Indianapolis Colts

A.J. HaulcySFull Participation in Practice
Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
Andrew OgletreeTEFull Participation in Practice
Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
Anthony RichardsonQBFull Participation in Practice
Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)