NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Arizona Cardinals vs Indianapolis Colts

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Colts is the better survivor pick this week

Colts score 0.331 equity (38.6% win probability) against Cardinals at 0.199 — a real gap of 0.132.

ARI team page →IND team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ LACOpponentvs BAL
19.9%Win prob38.6%
0.199Equity score0.331
+9.5Spread11/11 books+3.5
47.5Game total48.0
▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.006

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 6 meetings · ARI 2 — IND 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1386.3ELO rating1471.9
#29ELO rank#23
3-14Record8-9
NFC WestDivisionAFC South
#4Division rank#3
L 17 · L 23 · L 7 · L 20 · L 28Last 5newest firstL 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

17.0 · #19vs QB16.9 · #18
26.9 · #30vs RB20.0 · #10
30.2 · #15vs WR36.1 · #31
16.9 · #30vs TE15.2 · #25

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.76 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)
6.82Pressures / game9.88
3-9Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows6-8

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

35.4% · #30Pre-snap motion42.6% · #17
13.8% · #3Play action13.6% · #4
2.0% · #26RPO7.2% · #7
4.7% · #8Screen pass2.7% · #28
9.9% · #6No huddle4.7% · #21
59.2% · #9Shotgun58.7% · #12

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

29.1% · #19Man coverage37.4% · #8
27.4% · #17Blitz (5+ rushers)28.2% · #14
25.7% · #29Pressure29.6% · #19
ARI scheme profile →IND scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Arizona Cardinals

  • Blake GillikinPFull Participation in Practice
  • Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Garrett WilliamsCBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Isaiah AdamsGDid Not Participate In Practice
  • James ConnerRunning BackQuestionable
  • Jeremiyah LoveRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Joey BlountSafetyQuestionable
  • Josh SweatLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Kaleb ProctorDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
  • PJ MustipherDefensive TackleInjured Reserve
  • Will JohnsonCBFull Participation in Practice

Indianapolis Colts

  • A.J. HaulcySLimited Participation in Practice
  • Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
  • Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Andrew OgletreeTELimited Participation in Practice
  • Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
  • Anthony Richardson Sr.QuarterbackOut
  • Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
  • Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
  • Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Relevant to this matchup

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