How the Washington Commanders Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2025 · 2006-10-15 to 2025-12-07
As favorite
55-44
Win rate
55.6%
Sample size
99 games
vs market
-8.3 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Washington Commanders have been the betting favorite in 99 graded games and won 55 of them — 55.6%. The market priced those same games at 63.3 expected wins, so they finished -8.3 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 25-20 (55.6%) across 45 games, against 32.5 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs TEN · 2006 Week 684.6%
Lost 22–25 on 2006-10-15 · game detail
- vs DAL · 2024 Week 1282.7%
Lost 26–34 on 2024-11-24 · game detail
- vs LA · 2008 Week 681.6%
Lost 17–19 on 2008-10-12 · game detail
- vs NYG · 2016 Week 1779.2%
Lost 10–19 on 2017-01-01 · game detail
- vs NYG · 2023 Week 1176.6%
Lost 19–31 on 2023-11-19 · game detail
- vs BUF · 2007 Week 1373.5%
Lost 16–17 on 2007-12-02 · game detail
- vs TB · 2014 Week 1173.2%
Lost 7–27 on 2014-11-16 · game detail
- vs CAR · 2016 Week 1573.0%
Lost 15–26 on 2016-12-19 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 45-1 as favorite · market expected 64.9%83%
- Week 75-1 as favorite · market expected 69.7%83%
- Week 144-1 as favorite · market expected 54.5%80%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 131-5 as favorite · market expected 58.8%17%
- Week 31-4 as favorite · market expected 64.9%20%
- Week 101-4 as favorite · market expected 53.3%20%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 6 | 4-2 | 67% | 65% |
| Week 2 | 9 | 5-4 | 56% | 65% |
| Week 3 | 5 | 1-4 | 20% | 65% |
| Week 4 | 6 | 5-1 | 83% | 65% |
| Week 5 | 3 | 2-1 | 67% | 64% |
| Week 6 | 7 | 3-4 | 43% | 73% |
| Week 7 | 6 | 5-1 | 83% | 70% |
| Week 8 | 3 | 3-0 | 100% | 59% |
| Week 9 | 8 | 3-5 | 38% | 58% |
| Week 10 | 5 | 1-4 | 20% | 53% |
| Week 11 | 7 | 4-3 | 57% | 62% |
| Week 12 | 4 | 3-1 | 75% | 70% |
| Week 13 | 6 | 1-5 | 17% | 59% |
| Week 14 | 5 | 4-1 | 80% | 54% |
| Week 15 | 5 | 2-3 | 40% | 70% |
| Week 16 | 4 | 3-1 | 75% | 64% |
| Week 17 | 7 | 4-3 | 57% | 68% |
| Week 18 | 3 | 2-1 | 67% | 65% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.