How the Cleveland Browns Perform as a Survivor Pick
2006–2025 · 2006-10-01 to 2025-12-07
As favorite
60-44
Win rate
57.7%
Sample size
104 games
vs market
-4.9 wins
Record as a market favorite
Every graded game since 2006 where the de-vigged market made them the favorite.
The Cleveland Browns have been the betting favorite in 104 graded games and won 60 of them — 57.7%. The market priced those same games at 64.9 expected wins, so they finished -4.9 against their own price. That gap is small relative to the sample and should be read as noise, not a repeatable edge.
Narrowing to the games survivor players actually consider — a pre-game win probability of at least 65% — the record is 25-11 (69.4%) across 36 games, against 26.2 expected wins.
Biggest survivor-relevant upset losses
Games this team lost, ranked by how heavy a favorite the market made them.
- vs JAX · 2013 Week 1374.1%
Lost 28–32 on 2013-12-01 · game detail
- vs CIN · 2011 Week 173.8%
Lost 17–27 on 2011-09-11 · game detail
- at NYJ · 2020 Week 1673.0%
Lost 16–23 on 2020-12-27 · game detail
- vs BAL · 2015 Week 1270.5%
Lost 27–33 on 2015-11-30 · game detail
- vs NYG · 2024 Week 370.0%
Lost 15–21 on 2024-09-22 · game detail
- vs NYJ · 2022 Week 268.3%
Lost 30–31 on 2022-09-18 · game detail
- vs TEN · 2019 Week 168.1%
Lost 13–43 on 2019-09-08 · game detail
- vs PIT · 2021 Week 867.1%
Lost 10–15 on 2021-10-31 · game detail
Best weeks to pick them
Aggregated by week number across every ingested season. Weeks need at least 5 favorite games to be ranked.
- Week 146-1 as favorite · market expected 62.8%86%
- Week 75-1 as favorite · market expected 61.1%83%
- Week 116-2 as favorite · market expected 59.8%75%
Riskiest weeks to pick them
- Week 62-4 as favorite · market expected 55.6%33%
- Week 163-5 as favorite · market expected 63.6%38%
- Week 102-3 as favorite · market expected 59.3%40%
Every week on record
| Week | Games | Record | Win rate | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 4 | 0-4 | 0% | 63% |
| Week 2 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 65% |
| Week 3 | 7 | 5-2 | 71% | 68% |
| Week 4 | 4 | 1-3 | 25% | 53% |
| Week 5 | 3 | 3-0 | 100% | 56% |
| Week 6 | 6 | 2-4 | 33% | 56% |
| Week 7 | 6 | 5-1 | 83% | 61% |
| Week 8 | 5 | 3-2 | 60% | 61% |
| Week 9 | 5 | 3-2 | 60% | 68% |
| Week 10 | 5 | 2-3 | 40% | 59% |
| Week 11 | 8 | 6-2 | 75% | 60% |
| Week 12 | 8 | 5-3 | 63% | 66% |
| Week 13 | 4 | 2-2 | 50% | 64% |
| Week 14 | 7 | 6-1 | 86% | 63% |
| Week 15 | 8 | 4-4 | 50% | 61% |
| Week 16 | 8 | 3-5 | 38% | 64% |
| Week 17 | 6 | 4-2 | 67% | 67% |
| Week 18 | 1 | 1-0 | 100% | 70% |
| Week 19 | 1 | 0-1 | 0% | 57% |
Week-level samples are small by construction — a handful of games each. Treat them as history, not as a forecast.