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Tennessee Titans vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Titans is the better survivor pick this week

Titans score 0.396 equity (52.6% win probability) against Commanders at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.104.

TEN team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NYJOpponent@ PHI

52.6%Win prob31.9%

0.396Equity score0.291

−1.5Spread11/11 books+5.5

38.5Game total44.5

▲ 0.005Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 13WAS @ TENnot played yet

All-time series: 8 meetings · TEN 4 — WAS 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1362.6ELO rating1464.1

#32ELO rank#24

3-14Record5-12

AFC SouthDivisionNFC East

#4Division rank#3

L 34 · L 8 · W +17 · L 13 · W +2Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

19.0 · #28vs QB19.5 · #30

21.6 · #14vs RB25.6 · #27

35.6 · #28vs WR34.9 · #25

14.2 · #19vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.47 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

9.06Pressures / game7.47

6-7Primetime record2021–2024 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

35.5% · #29Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

9.9% · #24Play action11.9% · #11

8.6% · #3RPO6.3% · #12

5.7% · #2Screen pass3.7% · #16

8.2% · #9No huddle50.2% · #1

58.9% · #11Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

27.1% · #22Man coverage32.0% · #15

22.9% · #24Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

29.5% · #21Pressure31.3% · #14

TEN scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Tennessee Titans

Ali GayeLinebackerQuestionable
Amani HookerSafetyOut
Anfernee OrjiLinebackerInjured Reserve
Arden KeyLinebackerQuestionable
Blake HanceGuardQuestionable
Bryce OliverWide ReceiverOut
C.J. RavenellDefensive EndOut
Calvin RidleyWide ReceiverOut
Cam HorsleyDefensive TackleOut
Cam WardQuarterbackOut
Cedric GrayLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Chandler BrewerOffensive TackleInjured Reserve

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDefensive TackleOut
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(mentions Titans)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)