NFL Survivor Edge

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Commanders is the better survivor pick this week

Commanders score 0.263 equity (33.2% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.250 — a real gap of 0.013.

TB team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CHIOpponentvs LA
29.4%Win prob33.2%
0.250Equity score0.263
+6.0Spread11/11 books+4.5
47.5Game total48.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 18 meetings · TB 9 — WAS 9. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1474.2ELO rating1466.6
#19ELO rank#22
3-5Record2-4-1
NFC SouthDivisionNFC East
#2Division rank#3
W +16 · W +30 · L 7 · W +8 · L 3Last 5newest firstW +17 · L 6 · T 0 · L 17 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

11.6 · #3vs QB20.0 · #25
16.9 · #1vs RB19.8 · #9
28.5 · #8vs WR33.6 · #18
14.8 · #19vs TE20.7 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.29 (2026)Sacks / game1.83 (2026)
7.43Pressures / game10
11-14Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows9-15

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #5Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18
8.4% · #31Play action11.9% · #11
6.4% · #11RPO6.3% · #12
5.1% · #5Screen pass3.7% · #16
5.5% · #19No huddle50.2% · #1
54.2% · #18Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

30.3% · #18Man coverage32.0% · #15
34.1% · #3Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16
34.1% · #3Pressure31.3% · #14
TB scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyOut
  • Baker MayfieldQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
  • Cade OttonTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Cody MauchGFull Participation in Practice
  • Elijah RobertsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Emeka EgbukaWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Jalen McMillanWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Kenny GainwellRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • SirVocea DennisLinebackerOut
  • Tykee SmithSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Yaya DiabyLBDid Not Participate In Practice

Washington Commanders

  • Charles OmenihuDefensive EndOut
  • Colson YankoffTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Isaac YiadomCornerbackOut
  • Javon KinlawDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Javontae Jean-BaptisteLinebackerInjured Reserve
  • Jayden DanielsQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Jer'Zhan NewtonDTFull Participation in Practice
  • John BatesTELimited Participation in Practice
  • Sam CosmiGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Shy TuttleDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Stefon DiggsWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Terry McLaurinWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

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