NFL Survivor Edge

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Buccaneers is the better survivor pick this week

Buccaneers score 0.310 equity (35.6% win probability) against Commanders at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.019.

TB team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CINOpponent@ PHI
35.6%Win prob31.9%
0.310Equity score0.291
+3.5Spread11/11 books+5.5
50.5Game total44.5
▼ 0.004Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 18 meetings · TB 9 — WAS 9. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1487.8ELO rating1464.1
#18ELO rank#24
8-9Record5-12
NFC SouthDivisionNFC East
#2Division rank#3
W +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

19.5 · #29vs QB19.5 · #30
22.2 · #18vs RB25.6 · #27
31.5 · #19vs WR34.9 · #25
15.8 · #26vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.18 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)
7.82Pressures / game7.47
10-14Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

50.2% · #5Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18
8.4% · #31Play action11.9% · #11
6.4% · #11RPO6.3% · #12
5.1% · #5Screen pass3.7% · #16
5.5% · #19No huddle50.2% · #1
54.2% · #18Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

30.3% · #18Man coverage32.0% · #15
34.1% · #3Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16
34.1% · #3Pressure31.3% · #14
TB scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
  • Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
  • Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
  • Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
  • Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
  • Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
  • Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
  • Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
  • Christian IzienSafetyOut
  • Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Washington Commanders

  • Ale KahoLinebackerOut
  • Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
  • Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
  • Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
  • Colson YankoffTight EndOut
  • Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
  • Daron PayneDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
  • Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
  • Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

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